TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 115.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,371
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,612

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,371 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed3f…0ab8backed Over45c203$91 inWon+$111.648749.4%43 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb81d…c6c0backed Over44c120$53 inWon+$67.29360.2%56 W · 37 L+10.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3f91…20ccbacked Over46c62$29 inWon+$33.489258.7%54 W · 38 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xecd6…d4dfbacked Under56c36$20 inLost-$20.162766.7%18 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce9b…0bc0backed Under56c32$18 inLost-$17.922948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbba…e95bbacked Under54c32$17 inLost-$17.283641.7%15 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f33…8f17backed Under54c30$16 inLost-$16.24351.2%22 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3b3…0d89backed Under56c28$16 inLost-$15.682944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fa4…b6a4backed Under54c27$15 inLost-$14.582965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+26%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2bb7…8745backed Under56c26$15 inLost-$14.562556%14 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9db…ab38backed Under54c25$14 inLost-$13.52142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1bd…0da6backed Under56c25$14 inLost-$144344.2%19 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3add…e482backed Under54c20$11 inLost-$10.82445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf3e…390fbacked Under56c18$10 inLost-$10.084755.3%26 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.