TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Spurs (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Spursof Spurs, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,879
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,280

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,879 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8333…eb93backed Magic49c7,925$3,904 inLost-$3,904.53551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Magic51c6,000$3,060 inLost-$3,06012056.7%68 W · 52 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Spurs49c5,107$2,502 inWon+$2,604.372,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Spurs51c4,525$2,308 inWon+$2,217.2712341.5%51 W · 72 L-8.6wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc6b6…13acbacked Spurs50c4,270$2,135 inWon+$2,134.794742.6%20 W · 27 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Magic52c3,000$1,560 inLost-$1,56035942.1%151 W · 208 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Magic50c2,000$1,000 inLost-$1,00026637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Spurs53c1,641$868 inWon+$773.196,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Magic47c1,500$705 inLost-$70523644.1%104 W · 132 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00d4…0a6abacked Spurs49c853.67$418 inWon+$435.376756.7%38 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Spurs50c765.87$385 inWon+$380.579,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Spurs50c574$287 inWon+$2871,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce8…63febacked Spurs51c500$255 inWon+$24512543.2%54 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Spurs50c475$238 inWon+$237.51,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Magic47c425.53$200 inLost-$20041649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Magic47c420$197 inLost-$197.462351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc56b…fe0abacked Spurs51c271.71$139 inWon+$133.1427943%120 W · 159 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Magic42c100$42 inLost-$423,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97e5…e2f4backed Spurs58c100$58 inWon+$424932.7%16 W · 33 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb442…bed7backed Spurs51c98.04$50 inWon+$48.0412652.4%66 W · 60 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Spurs50c80$40 inWon+$4060346.4%280 W · 323 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Spurs53c70$37 inWon+$32.949351.7%255 W · 238 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Magic47c59.57$28 inLost-$2862546.9%293 W · 332 L+1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19cc…c85ebacked Spurs51c42.49$21 inWon+$21.021040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x25d6…04cbbacked Spurs50c40$20 inWon+$203333.3%11 W · 22 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-38.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfa15…95e3backed Spurs50c36.78$18 inWon+$18.3921243.4%92 W · 120 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Spurs49c34.66$17 inWon+$17.6853043.8%232 W · 298 L-25.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8806…1df6backed Spurs50c33.12$17 inWon+$16.569549.5%47 W · 48 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb34…a390backed Magic50c31.62$16 inLost-$15.816038.3%23 W · 37 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa66d…0859backed Spurs50c30.95$16 inWon+$15.3821645.8%99 W · 117 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd5…5652backed Magic48c25$12 inLost-$12520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-50.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7280…fbd1backed Spurs49c24.48$12 inWon+$12.486240.3%25 W · 37 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Spurs69c24$17 inWon+$7.443,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa596…ce69backed Spurs50c24$12 inWon+$129764.9%63 W · 34 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Spurs50c20$10 inWon+$1037253.5%199 W · 173 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3744…3e65backed Spurs50c20$10 inWon+$107843.6%34 W · 44 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b79…a497backed Spurs51c19.75$10 inWon+$9.688149.4%40 W · 41 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.