TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Wild vs. Maple Leafs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wildof Wild, Maple Leafs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,395,281
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,403,519

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,395,281 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 481 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Wild52c533,759$276,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256,924.8620354.2%110 W · 93 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Wild50c429,701$214,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214,957.6356152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Maple Leafs48c291,986$140,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140,153.291,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98f7…b3e4backed Maple Leafs50c270,620$134,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134,477.9410753.3%57 W · 50 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6b4…a278backed Maple Leafs50c174,030$87,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87,015.1810349.5%51 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Maple Leafs49c83,000$40,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,319.961,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Maple Leafs50c74,000$37,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,0009548.4%46 W · 49 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Maple Leafs49c50,030$24,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,514.539047.9%187 W · 203 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Maple Leafs48c50,000$24,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,00022443.8%98 W · 126 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Wild51c40,000$20,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,599.9119555.4%108 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Wild51c30,226$15,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,813.128657%49 W · 37 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Wild51c30,000$15,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,70025449.2%125 W · 129 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb859…e244backed Maple Leafs48c25,000$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,00011052.7%58 W · 52 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Maple Leafs50c18,177$9,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,096.7247951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Maple Leafs1c17,587$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.9518520.5%38 W · 147 L-0.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Maple Leafs48c16,113$7,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,752.1148549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Maple Leafs48c15,111$7,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,243.562,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Wild50c15,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,50032946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Wild51c13,551$6,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,639.985261.5%32 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Maple Leafs0c12,826$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.432504.8%12 W · 238 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Wild49c11,638$5,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,894.041,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Maple Leafs49c11,294$5,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5342231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-38.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Maple Leafs49c11,190$5,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,429.531,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc330…1667backed Maple Leafs42c10,143$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3001050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Maple Leafs50c8,000$3,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,98061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Maple Leafs2c7,032$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11554418%98 W · 446 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Maple Leafs0c7,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29ae…4d2cbacked Maple Leafs16c6,925$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.137354.8%40 W · 33 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Maple Leafs48c6,893$3,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,308.5152050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Wild50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00026058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Wild50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50013948.2%67 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Wild50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50010848.1%52 W · 56 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Maple Leafs46c5,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.9133345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08a4…5c3fbacked Wild51c4,532$2,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,220.6830551.5%157 W · 148 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Maple Leafs50c4,213$2,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,086.1660249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Maple Leafs48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92012947.3%61 W · 68 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Maple Leafs48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92027048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Wild51c4,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,96015145%68 W · 83 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Maple Leafs50c2,824$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41218547%87 W · 98 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Maple Leafs1c2,723$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.621458.3%12 W · 133 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+135.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Maple Leafs50c2,657$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320.731,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba31…de52backed Maple Leafs1c2,459$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0860%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Maple Leafs48c2,364$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.521,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Maple Leafs50c2,200$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,09551044.5%227 W · 283 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Maple Leafs8c2,182$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.689636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Maple Leafs49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98016241.4%67 W · 95 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Maple Leafs49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9808650%43 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x771c…e709backed Maple Leafs52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb763…247dbacked Maple Leafs48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9601650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf2b…573cbacked Maple Leafs53c1,988$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.61650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d6a6backed Wild47c1,976$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Wild58c1,930$1,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.652,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Wild48c1,926$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.5160337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62c2…c2d8backed Maple Leafs52c1,920$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab7…b261backed Wild48c1,905$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$990.78771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+32.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Wild51c1,902$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.963948.7%19 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7283…b955backed Maple Leafs52c1,850$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5145…76d0backed Wild52c1,800$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6aa…3746backed Maple Leafs27c1,762$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.841060%6 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+29.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d5c…0a95backed Wild52c1,750$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8401100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Maple Leafs50c1,675$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.0218345.9%84 W · 99 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86ed…7daebacked Wild55c1,671$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c37…8258backed Maple Leafs53c1,608$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.5650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Maple Leafs49c1,546$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.1926955.8%150 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Wild49c1,531$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.6143743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Maple Leafs49c1,531$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7506949.3%34 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Maple Leafs46c1,503$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.4913747.4%65 W · 72 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Maple Leafs53c1,500$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.9963249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x778d…cbe2backed Wild48c1,475$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7673458.8%20 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+17.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Maple Leafs49c1,452$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.4868449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Maple Leafs49c1,427$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.2417057.1%97 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Maple Leafs53c1,402$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.2911749.6%58 W · 59 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf74a…a91cbacked Maple Leafs38c1,328$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.3510251%52 W · 50 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Maple Leafs52c1,299$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.2862249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Maple Leafs50c1,289$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.2985250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c11…b0e6backed Maple Leafs46c1,240$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.85850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Maple Leafs23c1,167$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.391,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Maple Leafs49c1,165$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.121,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Wild46c1,111$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.9289249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Maple Leafs50c1,100$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55045749.2%225 W · 232 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Wild48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.6714940.9%61 W · 88 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Maple Leafs51c1,035$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.1735245.2%159 W · 193 L-19.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Wild48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52042847.2%202 W · 226 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a89…2f26backed Wild47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53070547.7%336 W · 369 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Maple Leafs49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49043548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Maple Leafs36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36012838.3%49 W · 79 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…f205backed Maple Leafs1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102420.8%2 W · 240 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd622…8b56backed Maple Leafs49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49010846.3%50 W · 58 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Wild48c994.4$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.0922852.6%120 W · 108 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Wild52c961.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.5412844.5%57 W · 71 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9cc…149bbacked Wild51c938.33$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.781566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+31.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Maple Leafs53c933.96$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49529551.9%153 W · 142 L-1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765c…0779backed Maple Leafs49c900$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44140049.3%197 W · 203 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Wild51c859$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.781,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2437…d5c6backed Maple Leafs53c850$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Wild50c838.32$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.1614753.7%79 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6183…575fbacked Maple Leafs36c832.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.883444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Wild51c823.53$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.5331848.1%153 W · 165 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x162f…585abacked Wild51c818.33$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.984965.3%32 W · 17 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+22.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x972e…71d6backed Maple Leafs16c795.61$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.91333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-43.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.