NHL · resolved market
Wild vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x844f565974025e7d9a4ffc5b4d57c4c6d9a3e599e7e7fc15fbb04a461d84f7c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 58c | 7,000$4,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,939.98 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Under | 42c | 4,559$1,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,914.73 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda1…6253backed Over | 58c | 2,500$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2b…0a52backed Under | 42c | 2,500$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 45c | 1,646$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.69 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Over | 55c | 1,519$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.48 | 246 | 54.5%134 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 45c | 1,262$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.87 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 56c | 1,001$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.57 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 965.84$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.66 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 55c | 754$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.3 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Under | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 160 | 56.3%90 W · 70 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 44c | 475.85$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.37 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 44c | 443.99$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.36 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 56c | 401.79$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.79 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 44c | 299.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 55c | 299.98$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.99 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 42c | 190.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 56c | 130.22$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…9a6ebacked Under | 42c | 84.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over | 56c | 74.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Under | 42c | 69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 56c | 62.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 52.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 59c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4865…904dbacked Over | 56c | 48.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 104 | 59.6%62 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 42c | 47.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Over | 55c | 36.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…703cbacked Over | 59c | 34.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb2…4954backed Under | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 42c | 25.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Under | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…7077backed Over | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wild vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5this page
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Wild won
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)Wild won
- Wild vs. Maple LeafsWild won
- Wild vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.