NHL · resolved market
Wild vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x578fb7eb4a7829fd51a9a16f3e1253ff74a4e0315ad9a299587fd8a16e1042cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 56c | 4,472$2,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,504.37 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Over | 44c | 3,556$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,991.36 | 246 | 54.5%134 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 56c | 1,829$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.24 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 44c | 1,720$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.16 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…f6cebacked Under | 55c | 1,082$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.73 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 1,068$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.47 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 2c | 692$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Over | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 44c | 357.94$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.45 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 54c | 290.12$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.66 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 45c | 266$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Over | 45c | 240$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.4 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdce5…65d7backed Under | 54c | 187$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 46c | 149$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.11 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 60c | 121$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…58fcbacked Under | 19c | 104.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 210 | 60%126 W · 84 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over | 45c | 87.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 24c | 86.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951b…291abacked Over | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 51c | 71.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 43c | 52.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 43c | 47.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 74c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Over | 80c | 31.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…8fd6backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 177 | 54.2%96 W · 81 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed9…3cdebacked Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 56c | 23.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Over | 45c | 23.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wild vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Wild won
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)Wild won
- Wild vs. Maple LeafsWild won
- Wild vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.