TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Hofstra Pride (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Elon Phoenixof Hofstra Pride, Elon Phoenix
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$446,291
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$450,302

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $446,291 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Elon Phoenix50c405,342$202,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202,764.3635945.1%162 W · 197 L-24.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Hofstra Pride50c222,398$111,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,199.089050%45 W · 45 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Hofstra Pride50c150,000$75,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,00069142.8%296 W · 395 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hofstra Pride50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00090645.4%411 W · 495 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked Hofstra Pride50c4,778$2,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,388.767353.4%39 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Hofstra Pride50c4,559$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,279.619652.1%50 W · 46 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Hofstra Pride50c4,150$2,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0858747.1%41 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Hofstra Pride52c3,009$1,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,564.764,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Hofstra Pride51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53039744.8%178 W · 219 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Elon Phoenix50c2,822$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,420.4812,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d56…0ba5backed Hofstra Pride14c1,520$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.81050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d0f…f3e6backed Hofstra Pride50c1,400$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70011946.2%55 W · 64 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Hofstra Pride50c1,276$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.942246.2%195 W · 227 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Hofstra Pride52c1,100$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57282048.2%395 W · 425 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hofstra Pride51c1,049$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.495,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Hofstra Pride57c977.38$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.8125556.1%143 W · 112 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Hofstra Pride25c889.84$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.1638343.6%167 W · 216 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Elon Phoenix50c866.39$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.111,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Elon Phoenix49c800$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40855749.2%274 W · 283 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07bc…393abacked Hofstra Pride50c750$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3758351.8%43 W · 40 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd098…8c03backed Hofstra Pride52c707.69$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3685858.6%34 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x628e…1d80backed Hofstra Pride52c597.97$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.394443.2%19 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Elon Phoenix48c530.5$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.864,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Hofstra Pride50c360$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1809856.1%55 W · 43 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+52.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Elon Phoenix50c336$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.6160548.9%296 W · 309 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Hofstra Pride24c306$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.172,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Hofstra Pride28c297.35$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.649442.6%40 W · 54 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Elon Phoenix50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001,07046.9%502 W · 568 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked Hofstra Pride50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021443.9%94 W · 120 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9219…d304backed Elon Phoenix49c199.56$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.781323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.28per pick51cpaid-53.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed Hofstra Pride52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020046.5%93 W · 107 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c8c…237dbacked Elon Phoenix70c166.26$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2517546.3%81 W · 94 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d48…48e0backed Hofstra Pride32c165.71$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6618046.7%84 W · 96 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc35…62debacked Hofstra Pride26c140$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Hofstra Pride49c131.37$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3789645.9%411 W · 485 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd730…1948backed Hofstra Pride52c109.67$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0319653.1%104 W · 92 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3abc…935ebacked Hofstra Pride50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0343…5475backed Hofstra Pride51c97.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4790…2dd7backed Hofstra Pride52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.4wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-51.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xef3d…5b93backed Hofstra Pride53c91.04$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72f4…579fbacked Hofstra Pride27c90.59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.46540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Hofstra Pride52c76.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409045.6%41 W · 49 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Hofstra Pride22c75.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.922,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf415…01a4backed Hofstra Pride70c71.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.78540%2 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick69cpaid-43.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x33a4…0078backed Elon Phoenix71c70.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.34785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick69cpaid+26.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5352…b46ebacked Elon Phoenix71c70.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.343100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e27…a66bbacked Elon Phoenix71c70.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.34580%4 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5193…2328backed Elon Phoenix71c70.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.34875%6 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00f3…3a40backed Elon Phoenix71c70.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.342100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c37…947cbacked Elon Phoenix72c69.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.365100%5 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ca8…613ebacked Elon Phoenix72c69.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.36475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc931…6873backed Elon Phoenix72c69.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.36580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x643d…cce1backed Elon Phoenix72c69.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.36580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c28…ef30backed Elon Phoenix72c69.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56df…7f39backed Elon Phoenix72c69.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.36450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9522…8fa7backed Elon Phoenix72c69.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.364100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9c…0a5ebacked Elon Phoenix72c69.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.36580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c11…107ebacked Elon Phoenix72c69.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick67cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0819…fbb3backed Elon Phoenix73c68.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.412100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9874…6a8bbacked Elon Phoenix73c68.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.41580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91d7…5457backed Elon Phoenix73c68.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.411070%7 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x376a…4384backed Elon Phoenix73c68.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.411283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick72cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ba4…9ee8backed Elon Phoenix73c68.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick71cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4461…392abacked Elon Phoenix73c68.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.415100%5 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x951c…797abacked Elon Phoenix73c68.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.416100%6 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3011…bf2ebacked Elon Phoenix73c68.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.41771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83ab…46b9backed Elon Phoenix73c68.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.41887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick69cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x10f6…de70backed Elon Phoenix73c68.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.41862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf289…0514backed Elon Phoenix73c68.18$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.41560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1e0…90babacked Elon Phoenix74c67.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.54100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a6e…1597backed Elon Phoenix74c67.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.55100%5 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb527…29a7backed Elon Phoenix73c67.29$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.176100%6 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd18e…8ec3backed Elon Phoenix74c67.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.59100%9 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1992…be7abacked Elon Phoenix74c67.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf641…7d5cbacked Elon Phoenix74c67.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.53100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7af1…51fabacked Elon Phoenix75c66.4$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5661…4581backed Elon Phoenix76c65.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.73366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick76cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5613…d53bbacked Elon Phoenix79c63.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.241275%9 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3242…f373backed Elon Phoenix80c62.27$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.45785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick73cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83ce…7245backed Elon Phoenix80c62.27$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.45785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick72cpaid+22.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9987…6e59backed Elon Phoenix49c61.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.22933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Hofstra Pride25c61.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5218646.2%86 W · 100 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa973…ed68backed Elon Phoenix75c60.75$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.19560%3 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick77cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf935…5cfdbacked Elon Phoenix75c60.75$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.19366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick77cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aea…5590backed Hofstra Pride23c59.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5515844.3%70 W · 88 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe884…b25ebacked Elon Phoenix74c59.31$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.42785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick71cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf700…e16cbacked Elon Phoenix77c59.31$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.56862.5%5 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick75cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65b6…2108backed Hofstra Pride53c56.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305650%28 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Elon Phoenix50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Elon Phoenix49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51,16255.2%641 W · 521 L+25.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Elon Phoenix47c49.98$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4632343%139 W · 184 L-18.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc56b…fe0abacked Elon Phoenix49c48.3$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.549543.2%41 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68cd…e8d7backed Hofstra Pride50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202420.8%5 W · 19 L-7.3wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-59.2%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc119…7d4dbacked Hofstra Pride52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208452.4%44 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8123…268cbacked Hofstra Pride57c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba07…70bdbacked Elon Phoenix49c34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.23850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13af…9b77backed Hofstra Pride47c31.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1aa…071abacked Elon Phoenix51c29.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.415149%25 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad01…6f40backed Hofstra Pride52c28.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153030%9 W · 21 L-5.2wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-35.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x83fb…e89bbacked Hofstra Pride51c27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7716952.7%89 W · 80 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.