TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3abc…935e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
45
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Premier League, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 58 out of 100; worst NHL at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST1050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Indiana Hoosiers (-6.5)backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$13.94
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Houston Cougars: O/U 143.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$42.44
UTSA Roadrunners vs. Memphis Tigers: O/U 147.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$49
Holy Cross Crusaders vs. Lafayette Leopardsbacked Holy Cross Crusaders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Spread: Hofstra Pride (-5.5)backed Hofstra Pride · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Virginia Tech Hokies: O/U 140.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+25%+$17.86
Spread: Boise State Broncos (-5.5)backed Boise State Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+90.4%+$46.5
Spread: Kent State Golden Flashes (-5.5)backed Toledo Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+95.1%+$32.31
Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-17.5)backed Gonzaga Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+99.4%+$63.33
Spread: Wright State Raiders (-5.5)backed Wright State Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+117.4%+$35.17
All 10 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jan 22, 2026, EST683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+30.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-56.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+118.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blues vs. Starsbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Red Wings vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$16.44
Lightning vs. Bluesbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$16.48
All 4 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rams vs. Bearsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+53.8%+$13.46
Spread: Rams (-3.5)backed Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+85.2%+$32.46
All 3 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-01-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+111.2%+$44.48
Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+143.9%+$35.98
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$46.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: AVULUS vs 1win - Game 1 Winnerbacked 1win · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+75.4%+$22.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump say "China" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+72.1%+$16.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Adelaide International: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Ugo Humbertbacked Humbert · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+66.7%+$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: LNG Esports vs Oh My God (BO3)backed LNG Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+58.7%+$8.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$10.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jensen Huang say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during NVIDIA keynote?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$18.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$75.69
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.