Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: AVULUS vs 1win - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb67134fc6be1ae17b0a0ae9a1f3a9248c1313d5f2099a0842f101359ccd8498e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof AVULUS, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4422…96f4backed AVULUS | 13c | 4,990$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae17…b10dbacked 1win | 69c | 4,336$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,336.48 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked AVULUS | 39c | 2,025$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked AVULUS | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…d84fbacked AVULUS | 29c | 1,390$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.13 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed AVULUS | 30c | 1,361$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.98 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked AVULUS | 28c | 1,071$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.37 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…5410backed AVULUS | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked 1win | 60c | 975.95$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.65 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked AVULUS | 34c | 813.38$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.18 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…f087backed 1win | 70c | 641.83$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.36 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed 1win | 71c | 579$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.91 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed 1win | 62c | 534.13$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.12 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed 1win | 75c | 533.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed AVULUS | 9c | 511.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 61 | 3.3%2 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed AVULUS | 11c | 390.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda12…38d6backed 1win | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed AVULUS | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked AVULUS | 40c | 299.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked 1win | 67c | 278.43$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.88 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c7…4078backed AVULUS | 48c | 269.67$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked 1win | 73c | 267.44$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.78 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed AVULUS | 42c | 220$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed AVULUS | 24c | 209.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed 1win | 70c | 159.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453e…eabcbacked 1win | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked 1win | 55c | 134.81$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x009e…7974backed AVULUS | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked AVULUS | 40c | 116.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed AVULUS | 27c | 109.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb876…ae6ebacked AVULUS | 65c | 103.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…b7f3backed AVULUS | 49c | 101.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf50…aca0backed AVULUS | 37c | 95.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed AVULUS | 40c | 89.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed 1win | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked 1win | 69c | 73.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed 1win | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7e1fbacked AVULUS | 31c | 65.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed AVULUS | 69c | 60.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c0…c2a1backed 1win | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d9…e0cebacked 1win | 42c | 52.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3abc…935ebacked 1win | 57c | 51.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bd…4dacbacked 1win | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked AVULUS | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed AVULUS | 58c | 47.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…fbe9backed 1win | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…078abacked 1win | 57c | 38.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed 1win | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc277…dbf9backed AVULUS | 70c | 31.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked 1win | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed 1win | 70c | 28.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…963bbacked 1win | 78c | 26.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed 1win | 73c | 20.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs 1win - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs 1win (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group A1win won
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs 1win - Game 2 Winner1win won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.