Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: AVULUS vs 1win - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad429744230f69f99e17f113d0bd409dd0337fbf99c0c3e0ee0d094a6a1bb818
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof AVULUS, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked 1win | 60c | 5,160$3,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,055.81 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed AVULUS | 40c | 3,537$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed AVULUS | 38c | 1,884$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.76 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae17…b10dbacked 1win | 70c | 1,855$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.53 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked AVULUS | 32c | 1,394$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.64 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1191…dfa6backed AVULUS | 11c | 1,333$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.07 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked AVULUS | 11c | 1,313$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.62 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…eb66backed AVULUS | 27c | 1,296$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.08 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked AVULUS | 30c | 1,006$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.78 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb3…fd34backed AVULUS | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453e…eabcbacked 1win | 70c | 930$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.2 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed AVULUS | 37c | 838.62$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.55 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed 1win | 68c | 781.76$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.16 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed AVULUS | 27c | 699.99$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.95 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed 1win | 63c | 689.29$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.29 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked 1win | 60c | 666$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.4 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked 1win | 79c | 463.1$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.93 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked 1win | 54c | 462.66$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.28 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda12…38d6backed 1win | 69c | 461.22$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.72 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed AVULUS | 33c | 384.76$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.73 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed AVULUS | 19c | 360$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked AVULUS | 46c | 273.47$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…514cbacked AVULUS | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 338 | 45.6%154 W · 184 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed 1win | 67c | 222$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…d84fbacked AVULUS | 30c | 211.03$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed AVULUS | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed AVULUS | 33c | 174$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed AVULUS | 42c | 118.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed AVULUS | 22c | 116$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed AVULUS | 21c | 114.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed 1win | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed AVULUS | 44c | 110.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed AVULUS | 18c | 109.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c0…c2a1backed AVULUS | 12c | 108.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed AVULUS | 39c | 103.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…e55abacked AVULUS | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked AVULUS | 39c | 91.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed 1win | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf50…aca0backed 1win | 60c | 87.38$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed AVULUS | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed AVULUS | 27c | 67.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea51…a876backed AVULUS | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked 1win | 70c | 54.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed 1win | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…078abacked 1win | 61c | 45.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed AVULUS | 42c | 43.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bc…bc0dbacked 1win | 64c | 43.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…ddb2backed AVULUS | 44c | 39.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d4…b96cbacked AVULUS | 57c | 35.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked AVULUS | 38c | 34.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb91…8700backed AVULUS | 35c | 33.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked AVULUS | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked 1win | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ae…3550backed AVULUS | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed 1win | 58c | 19.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs 1win - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs 1win (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group A1win won
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs 1win - Game 1 Winner1win won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.