TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: AVULUS vs 1win (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
1winof AVULUS, 1win
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,114
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,970

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,114 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x61fa…7f62backed 1win70c2,828$1,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.9946451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked AVULUS9c2,101$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.7114121.3%30 W · 111 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-60.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67c3…0e36backed 1win70c1,285$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.4912965.1%84 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed AVULUS30c1,250$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37546535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed AVULUS32c784.23$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.216346%29 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked AVULUS30c760.04$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.372,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15bd…e897backed AVULUS33c655$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.15475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+49.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed AVULUS28c654.58$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.8365625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff27…f845backed AVULUS33c612$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.96425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ee7…0c24backed AVULUS33c610$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…61dabacked AVULUS33c606$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.98837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed AVULUS12c458.96$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.816169.7%60 W · 556 L-2.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed 1win75c361.47$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.3747660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x899c…99d3backed 1win72c358.48$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.26633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-47.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7abc…9ff7backed AVULUS19c350.69$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682020%4 W · 16 L-5.5wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-62.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x141b…b7b5backed 1win67c338$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.54450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfbf…5d35backed AVULUS26c325.96$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.75540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-40.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x458f…124bbacked 1win67c317$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.61450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked AVULUS20c309.9$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9973841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ae…a498backed 1win67c309$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.972100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6de…6c62backed 1win67c309$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.97560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1615…e76abacked 1win67c308$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked AVULUS24c307.94$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0969835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce8e…41debacked 1win67c303$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.993100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+112.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1aac…e4e2backed 1win67c301$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.335100%5 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+76.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc954…642fbacked 1win67c299.99$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9916155.3%89 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x493b…1541backed 1win67c298$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.34560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed AVULUS11c256.09$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1718444.6%82 W · 102 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed 1win67c255.89$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.221,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked AVULUS27c230.53$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8579341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x728a…a75cbacked AVULUS30c199.96$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.99633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+54.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked AVULUS31c195.55$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5436851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed AVULUS30c145$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.59145.1%41 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x81a4…da1fbacked AVULUS30c139.77$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.935837.9%22 W · 36 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84eb…869dbacked AVULUS33c139$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.872835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked 1win80c126.94$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3985851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ec…875cbacked AVULUS32c120.71$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.631735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed AVULUS30c116.67$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-67.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked AVULUS21c116.18$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9253139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed AVULUS23c115.26$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.31,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f7…7584backed 1win68c106.29$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed AVULUS31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3153757.7%310 W · 227 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4703…ce7fbacked AVULUS45c99.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-51.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked AVULUS32c99.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed AVULUS28c89.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1823529.4%69 W · 166 L-21.5wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x31ad…8b71backed 1win68c80.88$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0708…3b30backed 1win72c80.56$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebe2…e4d2backed AVULUS31c78$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.237753.2%41 W · 36 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed 1win55c74.5$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.533158.1%18 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85b2…0ab9backed AVULUS29c72.41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217753.2%41 W · 36 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed AVULUS31c71.94$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.312229.5%36 W · 86 L-18.2wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-41.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed AVULUS30c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2167853.5%363 W · 315 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea51…a876backed 1win70c69.36$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3703…2795backed AVULUS33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015341.2%63 W · 90 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0bf…dc6dbacked AVULUS17c60$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21625%4 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-43.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5815…ed3ebacked AVULUS24c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb57…32dcbacked AVULUS21c56.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.182544%11 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc017…71c1backed AVULUS35c56.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf01e…aed4backed 1win67c55.5$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.311662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+23.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb27…8be8backed AVULUS31c54.35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8218248.4%88 W · 94 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0e2…d949backed 1win66c52.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.021346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick65cpaid-34%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5271…0f95backed AVULUS30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked AVULUS31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.517638.6%68 W · 108 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99fb…210ebacked 1win70c45.32$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.79650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-30%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x390c…e88ebacked 1win73c43.66$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.791258.3%7 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick67cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe696…146ebacked AVULUS34c40.41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61d9…e0cebacked 1win68c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.86150.8%31 W · 30 L+7.2wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+9.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fd2…36bcbacked 1win70c35.71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3494…04f4backed AVULUS31c35.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111836.4%43 W · 75 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4bc…bc0dbacked 1win73c34.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.213100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed 1win65c30.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9846664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x770e…078fbacked 1win69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9c0…c6f9backed 1win70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.571163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x399c…6191backed 1win70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.575978%46 W · 13 L+8.7wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+20.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbe23…a8b5backed 1win72c27.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.97966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a11…de7cbacked 1win75c26.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick72cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5232…e61abacked 1win77c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1e8…9e56backed 1win73c23.29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked 1win65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795841.1%394 W · 564 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5514…72bdbacked 1win66c19.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.85100%5 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf60c…f540backed 1win70c19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.795362.3%33 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf7…a506backed 1win75c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.443237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked 1win63c17.17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.351770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+20.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.