AI · resolved market
Will Jensen Huang say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during NVIDIA keynote?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bb3deea90ffb36a73ec85609e1bff40fc671c9afc35c4541decda72d4c78b1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x177c…bcd1backed Yes | 24c | 338.04$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed No | 62c | 318.58$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f07…9d0fbacked Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 13c | 233.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0181…dc91backed Yes | 21c | 230.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 25c | 131.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 73c | 116.38$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8a…6ef8backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53b4…0139backed No | 78c | 73.36$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 74c | 68.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b8…c757backed Yes | 21c | 62.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…6016backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…9dfbbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abc…935ebacked Yes | 38c | 49.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…96e8backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17d6…e3edbacked Yes | 62c | 32.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…fe18backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7979…8b45backed No | 75c | 26.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 24.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jensen Huang say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during NVIDIA keynote?this page
- Will Jensen Huang say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 10+ times during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Bubble" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Elon" or "Musk" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Gemini" or "Perplexity" 4+ times during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Grok" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Happy New Year" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Human Robot" or "Human Robotic" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Hyperscaler" or "Hyperscale" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Lidar" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Palantir" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Quantum" 5+ times during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Ray Traced" or "Ray Tracing" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Self-Driving" 3+ times during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "TSMC" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Taiwan" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.