AI · resolved market
Will Jensen Huang say "TSMC" during NVIDIA keynote?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6728e73f6de74505107737fa821c8ddb7a841f5ab26e13587d30a519e7c1a695
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f5…b461backed Yes | 72c | 1,122$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…7154backed No | 29c | 897$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…5709backed No | 29c | 802.65$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed No | 28c | 762$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.36 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…3c30backed Yes | 72c | 656$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22ec…4477backed Yes | 71c | 615.99$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…7fc6backed No | 27c | 611$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…b842backed No | 29c | 599$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…6d90backed Yes | 73c | 596$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…4018backed Yes | 71c | 593$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…ee5abacked Yes | 73c | 575$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…2f7bbacked No | 27c | 518$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…c17abacked Yes | 73c | 492$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…0b1ebacked No | 27c | 474$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes | 73c | 422$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc9…5856backed No | 27c | 422$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed Yes | 71c | 397$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.13 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed No | 29c | 397$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.13 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed Yes | 73c | 393$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 35c | 391$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.95 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…e109backed No | 27c | 390$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed No | 29c | 259$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…ef76backed Yes | 71c | 242.45$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…d4f7backed Yes | 71c | 215$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed Yes | 73c | 213$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b71…f1d9backed No | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed Yes | 72c | 141$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 72c | 136$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…9dd3backed Yes | 73c | 136$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +95%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed No | 27c | 132$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7e…7f73backed No | 44c | 125.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed No | 27c | 87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa001…4f93backed Yes | 76c | 79.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…a23bbacked No | 27c | 78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…50e1backed Yes | 73c | 77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed No | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…6b99backed No | 29c | 71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0120…797abacked Yes | 56c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed Yes | 73c | 62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…adcabacked Yes | 74c | 61.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 27c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58e1…a5cdbacked No | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606c…92f8backed No | 32c | 46.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 72c | 45.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…6fc0backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 69c | 34.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…6bc2backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…d6f0backed Yes | 73c | 27.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 43c | 26.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2eb…c299backed Yes | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c1…3635backed Yes | 75c | 19.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5db0…73f1backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…dc6dbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jensen Huang say "TSMC" during NVIDIA keynote?this page
- Will Jensen Huang say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 10+ times during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Bubble" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Elon" or "Musk" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Gemini" or "Perplexity" 4+ times during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Grok" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Happy New Year" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Human Robot" or "Human Robotic" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Hyperscaler" or "Hyperscale" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Lidar" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Palantir" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Quantum" 5+ times during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Ray Traced" or "Ray Tracing" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Self-Driving" 3+ times during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Taiwan" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.