TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during NVIDIA keynote?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$530,601
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$571,250

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $530,601 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x564f…7034backed Yes0c100,996$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1154216.7%7 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-38.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ae7…3e12backed Yes1c56,752$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.964736.2%17 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17c0…8ee9backed Yes0c38,600$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bbf…3f4bbacked Yes0c33,545$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.63425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-38.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ad2…259abacked Yes0c21,500$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aea…d060backed Yes0c18,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7d1…dcb3backed Yes0c14,658$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02f6…8cf2backed Yes0c12,985$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c25…27a2backed Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc579…21cdbacked Yes0c10,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe55…4449backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb973…840cbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x664c…d6b0backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes4c6,988$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.35547.3%26 W · 29 L+7.8wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+23.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x300d…978fbacked Yes0c4,117$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9250%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc63a…6fc0backed Yes3c3,216$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.55944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+41.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9339…a56fbacked No79c2,847$2,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+138%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6463…eeb9backed Yes8c2,566$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes33c1,989$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.514250%71 W · 71 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+70.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked No79c1,700$1,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.1450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-15.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa09c…f710backed Yes60c1,600$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+264%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dbf…9aeebacked Yes3c1,576$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee21…e2febacked Yes70c1,502$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.09850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes21c1,500$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.27540%30 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes11c1,500$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.54619.6%9 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe598…a0a8backed Yes35c1,471$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.08714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-81%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa271…2727backed Yes1c1,389$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.37290%0 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb540…10f7backed Yes1c1,350$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No68c1,243$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.72366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x983c…385dbacked No47c1,162$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.19450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2c4…9d55backed No72c1,146$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes3c1,112$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.51560%9 W · 6 L+4.8wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+180.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes11c1,000$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1096453.1%34 W · 30 L+12.9wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+95.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xa312…050dbacked Yes19c938.02$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bb8…69edbacked No6c888.89$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.55728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick5cpaid+476.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed No76c859.26$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.925448.1%26 W · 28 L+8.0wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+81.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x10fb…4651backed Yes6c770.27$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.85933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1874…38f5backed Yes17c702.69$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes4c641.92$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-72.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed No78c617.16$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.7111855.9%66 W · 52 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Yes4c590.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.761428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked Yes4c576.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.772748.1%13 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes3c526.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.771127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x303c…1cf8backed Yes5c506.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73af…b880backed Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes14c438.63$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.113735.1%13 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb436…bb3cbacked No77c423.91$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf964…6e97backed Yes6c417.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c74…bcabbacked No60c347.97$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes17c337.86$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.611175.1%6 W · 111 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-65.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7322…7545backed Yes4c310.24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes44c294.37$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.26329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-81.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Yes6c277.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.36728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes5c270$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10fe…e1f5backed Yes6c256.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd6a…e11dbacked Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd31c…7424backed No64c236.89$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes15c226.26$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.841942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5642…4857backed Yes15c219.98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb766…1d83backed Yes20c214.28$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.51728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-50.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes37c211.71$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.465420.4%11 W · 43 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609041.1%37 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc40…7727backed Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No78c150.57$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7113971.9%100 W · 39 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc550…5b65backed Yes16c146.37$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7329…d562backed No30c136$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes11c130$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.553414.7%5 W · 29 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-78.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4e1e…c5e3backed No27c120$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes36c113.93$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8211124.3%27 W · 84 L-16.1wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-54.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5232…0ec5backed No60c111.87$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9c…3925backed No30c104$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+235.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38cc…5c4fbacked Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5113…f0babacked Yes70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e5b…4ef4backed Yes70c99.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.991764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x149f…d306backed No76c99.72$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.75580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+36.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes77c94.86$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.491855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+38.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b7e…7f73backed Yes78c86.45$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671050%5 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No22c83.62$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.17219.4%14 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes49c81.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405632.1%18 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Yes16c78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.513250%16 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e46…24debacked No29c76.48$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.62445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-15.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8985…3032backed No78c76.03$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd73f…87fdbacked No29c68.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.972100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+149%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7979…8b45backed No29c68.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.32580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+61.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed No27c67.88$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.371471.4%10 W · 4 L+4.7wins+0.34per pick38cpaid+108.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x5bfa…f779backed No66c62.19$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.141070%7 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+47.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20229.1%2 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-39.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No79c54.58$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.422250%11 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No51c51.89$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6810561.9%65 W · 40 L+17.4wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+34.8%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xfb5a…8008backed Yes66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+232.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02ab…6783backed Yes57c43.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3687…e697backed No31c41.07$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.23100%3 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f49…9cc3backed No39c40.79$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.74475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+105.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb569…021ebacked No65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x569f…5561backed Yes72c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-47.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No41c39.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.592657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+25.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ff…5e17backed No29c36.92$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.073100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+119.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0639…312fbacked No76c34.4$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8c8…144bbacked No31c32.76$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+227.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d2d…d219backed Yes72c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.