AI · resolved market
Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during NVIDIA keynote?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5d6ba606b9bd590e73f7fb2499c5d3372db45af92fac906f479726e5a02cc67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $530,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $571,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $530,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 0c | 100,996$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed Yes | 1c | 56,752$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.96 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17c0…8ee9backed Yes | 0c | 38,600$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…3f4bbacked Yes | 0c | 33,545$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…259abacked Yes | 0c | 21,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aea…d060backed Yes | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d1…dcb3backed Yes | 0c | 14,658$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f6…8cf2backed Yes | 0c | 12,985$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c25…27a2backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc579…21cdbacked Yes | 0c | 10,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe55…4449backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…840cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664c…d6b0backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 4c | 6,988$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.3 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…978fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,117$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…6fc0backed Yes | 3c | 3,216$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9339…a56fbacked No | 79c | 2,847$2,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +138%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6463…eeb9backed Yes | 8c | 2,566$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 33c | 1,989$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.5 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked No | 79c | 1,700$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09c…f710backed Yes | 60c | 1,600$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +264%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbf…9aeebacked Yes | 3c | 1,576$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…e2febacked Yes | 70c | 1,502$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 21c | 1,500$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.2 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 11c | 1,500$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.5 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed Yes | 35c | 1,471$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed Yes | 1c | 1,389$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb540…10f7backed Yes | 1c | 1,350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 68c | 1,243$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked No | 47c | 1,162$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c4…9d55backed No | 72c | 1,146$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,112$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.8wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +180.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa312…050dbacked Yes | 19c | 938.02$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb8…69edbacked No | 6c | 888.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 5cpaid | +476.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 76c | 859.26$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.92 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed Yes | 6c | 770.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1874…38f5backed Yes | 17c | 702.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes | 4c | 641.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 78c | 617.16$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.71 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 4c | 590.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Yes | 4c | 576.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 3c | 526.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x303c…1cf8backed Yes | 5c | 506.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73af…b880backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 14c | 438.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…bb3cbacked No | 77c | 423.91$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf964…6e97backed Yes | 6c | 417.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…bcabbacked No | 60c | 347.97$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 17c | 337.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7322…7545backed Yes | 4c | 310.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 44c | 294.37$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.26 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 6c | 277.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes | 5c | 270$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…e1f5backed Yes | 6c | 256.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6a…e11dbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…7424backed No | 64c | 236.89$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 15c | 226.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5642…4857backed Yes | 15c | 219.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb766…1d83backed Yes | 20c | 214.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 37c | 211.71$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.46 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc40…7727backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 78c | 150.57$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…5b65backed Yes | 16c | 146.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…d562backed No | 30c | 136$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 11c | 130$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1e…c5e3backed No | 27c | 120$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 113.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5232…0ec5backed No | 60c | 111.87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9c…3925backed No | 30c | 104$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +235.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…5c4fbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…4ef4backed Yes | 70c | 99.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149f…d306backed No | 76c | 99.72$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes | 77c | 94.86$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7e…7f73backed Yes | 78c | 86.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 22c | 83.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 49c | 81.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 16c | 78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e46…24debacked No | 29c | 76.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8985…3032backed No | 78c | 76.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73f…87fdbacked No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +149%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7979…8b45backed No | 29c | 68.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 27c | 67.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.34per pick | 38cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f779backed No | 66c | 62.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 79c | 54.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 51c | 51.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5a…8008backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +232.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ab…6783backed Yes | 57c | 43.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…e697backed No | 31c | 41.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…9cc3backed No | 39c | 40.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…021ebacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…5561backed Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 41c | 39.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ff…5e17backed No | 29c | 36.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0639…312fbacked No | 76c | 34.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c8…144bbacked No | 31c | 32.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +227.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…d219backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during NVIDIA keynote?this page
- Will Jensen Huang say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 10+ times during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Bubble" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Elon" or "Musk" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Gemini" or "Perplexity" 4+ times during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Grok" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Happy New Year" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Human Robot" or "Human Robotic" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Hyperscaler" or "Hyperscale" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Lidar" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Palantir" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Quantum" 5+ times during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Ray Traced" or "Ray Tracing" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Self-Driving" 3+ times during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "TSMC" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Taiwan" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.