AI · resolved market
Will Jensen Huang say "Bubble" during NVIDIA keynote?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x753c1e14c78d61a31a723b58991123cd235972432a7477a9fabd2fa3b8902668
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29a9…d4f7backed No | 78c | 593$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked Yes | 22c | 477$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…0430backed No | 78c | 332$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.04 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…53e0backed Yes | 22c | 306$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7e…7f73backed No | 77c | 195.32$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 22c | 142$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked Yes | 21c | 108.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 25c | 103.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f07…9d0fbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228a…2a55backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5f…03dcbacked Yes | 36c | 83.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed No | 61c | 82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked Yes | 39c | 77.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f4…0d0dbacked No | 62c | 72.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbe…047dbacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…277bbacked Yes | 29c | 58.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 65c | 55.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked No | 69c | 49.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95dd…90ecbacked Yes | 42c | 47.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c80…9b99backed Yes | 45c | 44.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 57c | 34.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed Yes | 29c | 34.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3a…92cbbacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73f…87fdbacked No | 65c | 30.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +149%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b8…81a9backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…5561backed Yes | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e46…24debacked No | 55c | 27.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa001…4f93backed No | 76c | 26.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 55c | 23.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1668…dbb1backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 78c | 13.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jensen Huang say "Bubble" during NVIDIA keynote?this page
- Will Jensen Huang say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 10+ times during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Elon" or "Musk" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Gemini" or "Perplexity" 4+ times during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Grok" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Happy New Year" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Human Robot" or "Human Robotic" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Hyperscaler" or "Hyperscale" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Lidar" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Palantir" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Quantum" 5+ times during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Ray Traced" or "Ray Tracing" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Self-Driving" 3+ times during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "TSMC" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Taiwan" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.