AI · resolved market
Will Jensen Huang say "Happy New Year" during NVIDIA keynote?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9749b5f01f2840e4eda4aefbbb184e5014493616766b129da0f7c95a9391d04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02e0…f32ebacked Yes | 55c | 1,374$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 40c | 783.41$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.34 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.34per pick | 38cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 50c | 481.67$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.54 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675a…0551backed No | 59c | 169.69$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e93…78bcbacked No | 47c | 155$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e05…abc2backed Yes | 40c | 112.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…bf06backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7e…7f73backed Yes | 67c | 96.72$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…aa14backed No | 74c | 91.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…c807backed Yes | 57c | 87.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9610…a5a5backed Yes | 65c | 84.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b86…3010backed No | 66c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 54c | 77.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…adcabacked Yes | 34c | 75.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…9ad2backed Yes | 73c | 73.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa001…4f93backed Yes | 77c | 51.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf72e…5928backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 26c | 44.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…852fbacked No | 42c | 38.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606c…92f8backed No | 54c | 37.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…e227backed No | 67c | 37.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 79c | 36.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.5wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 37c | 36.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe672…08ecbacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 31.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbe…047dbacked Yes | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 51c | 27.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…8742backed Yes | 54c | 23.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950f…11f9backed No | 48c | 22.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6e…f3e8backed No | 57c | 21.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf052…f7d2backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e66…9379backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9a…b801backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07ba…117abacked Yes | 56c | 17.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…9689backed Yes | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a02…1811backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jensen Huang say "Happy New Year" during NVIDIA keynote?this page
- Will Jensen Huang say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 10+ times during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Bubble" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Elon" or "Musk" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Gemini" or "Perplexity" 4+ times during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Grok" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Human Robot" or "Human Robotic" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Hyperscaler" or "Hyperscale" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Lidar" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Palantir" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Quantum" 5+ times during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Ray Traced" or "Ray Tracing" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Self-Driving" 3+ times during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "TSMC" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Taiwan" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.