AI · resolved market
Will Jensen Huang say "Human Robot" or "Human Robotic" during NVIDIA keynote?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x318cb26a55f2d0907e6c7a8e3cd9756836631eeb358ba2e45d94caefaf978ec9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 27c | 2,695$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,961.77 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb8…69edbacked No | 4c | 1,800$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,724 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 5cpaid | +476.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed Yes | 1c | 1,381$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368b…2458backed No | 25c | 999.21$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.42 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e14…86f0backed No | 10c | 652.11$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +557.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 43c | 538.75$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.14 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked No | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked No | 39c | 354.83$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 40c | 335.98$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.87 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1874…38f5backed Yes | 54c | 325.22$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3119…c8f8backed Yes | 79c | 253.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 30c | 233.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 22c | 224.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.86 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.34per pick | 38cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…d6f0backed Yes | 78c | 203.96$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228a…2a55backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…4e9abacked Yes | 70c | 185.8$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…3c74backed No | 71c | 172.5$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…e84dbacked Yes | 54c | 166.73$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.82 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed No | 18c | 153.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.19 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 23c | 149.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.56 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 48c | 140.96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.08 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5a…8008backed No | 52c | 136.41$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +232.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53b4…0139backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 91.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0120…797abacked Yes | 59c | 70.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 33c | 56.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1b…1170backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 23c | 48.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…96e8backed Yes | 74c | 44.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 53c | 40.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…e227backed Yes | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…2a20backed Yes | 70c | 38.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc5…93b1backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2eb…c299backed Yes | 48c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…ae43backed No | 36c | 28.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…0645backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…0a3abacked Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…3ea8backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jensen Huang say "Human Robot" or "Human Robotic" during NVIDIA keynote?this page
- Will Jensen Huang say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 10+ times during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Bubble" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Elon" or "Musk" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Gemini" or "Perplexity" 4+ times during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Grok" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Happy New Year" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Hyperscaler" or "Hyperscale" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Lidar" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Palantir" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Quantum" 5+ times during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Ray Traced" or "Ray Tracing" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Self-Driving" 3+ times during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "TSMC" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Taiwan" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.