AI · resolved market
Will Jensen Huang say "Elon" or "Musk" during NVIDIA keynote?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73e3dbc0f7fd7491e9ec4dc4e59860861331c8e87042677814c86deaa1db4970
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bb8…69edbacked No | 3c | 3,500$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 5cpaid | +476.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 72c | 648.79$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.79 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 11c | 363$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 11c | 363$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7e…7f73backed No | 68c | 331$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 26c | 299.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.99 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 22c | 285.43$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.01 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02e0…f32ebacked Yes | 70c | 276.46$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf256…3767backed Yes | 28c | 244.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 74c | 196$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 31c | 172.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.22 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe28f…be21backed Yes | 39c | 155.26$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1874…38f5backed Yes | 46c | 130.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 37c | 120$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.14 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb83…1729backed Yes | 59c | 101.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…dd15backed No | 74c | 100.04$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 66c | 88.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8a…6ef8backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 61c | 63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbe…047dbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc337…c55bbacked No | 73c | 46.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…9cc3backed Yes | 25c | 46.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 62c | 44.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed No | 54c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…32b3backed No | 79c | 37.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 35.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…adcabacked Yes | 41c | 35.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d6…e3edbacked Yes | 69c | 29.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb37f…fdcfbacked No | 66c | 28.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 25.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…845dbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.5wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jensen Huang say "Elon" or "Musk" during NVIDIA keynote?this page
- Will Jensen Huang say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 10+ times during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Bubble" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Gemini" or "Perplexity" 4+ times during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Grok" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Happy New Year" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Human Robot" or "Human Robotic" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Hyperscaler" or "Hyperscale" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Lidar" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Palantir" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Quantum" 5+ times during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Ray Traced" or "Ray Tracing" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Self-Driving" 3+ times during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "TSMC" during NVIDIA keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Taiwan" during NVIDIA keynote?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.