Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 2°C on January 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef0c50ae8a00332e204b373e75bfb2444e7bc8cca9acea6cadb54dce771ed9f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec3a…a709backed Yes | 80c | 1,196$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.3 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 23c | 990.43$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.81 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 72c | 550.53$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.75 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4acb…ddd3backed No | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8e…6284backed No | 8c | 299.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…8c71backed Yes | 67c | 296.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 11c | 228.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 31c | 199.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 36c | 175.3$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…5369backed Yes | 63c | 159.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc22…2770backed No | 44c | 157.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ca…2f7fbacked Yes | 67c | 148.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8740…70f4backed Yes | 64c | 138.14$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd17…9bfbbacked No | 26c | 117.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a89…0e5dbacked Yes | 73c | 115.55$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 53c | 97.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 66c | 92.55$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 62c | 90.66$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdf…d53ebacked No | 25c | 85.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 61c | 85.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 39c | 80.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 60c | 77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…21e4backed Yes | 70c | 75.51$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…2556backed Yes | 67c | 75.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 69c | 63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed Yes | 64c | 61.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 71c | 60.54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 22c | 60.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Yes | 65c | 59.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 36c | 59.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed No | 40c | 54.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…39e8backed No | 44c | 51.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 55c | 49.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…bc6bbacked Yes | 78c | 44.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 71c | 44.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2b…e6b5backed Yes | 68c | 41.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf145…2b6ebacked Yes | 70c | 40.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f7…761ebacked Yes | 66c | 37.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab2b…1ecabacked Yes | 67c | 34.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…5a62backed Yes | 60c | 33.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…71eebacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdf…4981backed Yes | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x178d…05edbacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…db59backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 58c | 29.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d48…2e2abacked Yes | 50c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858c…9953backed No | 38c | 26.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5889…2770backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb9…533fbacked Yes | 59c | 24.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af7…ce74backed Yes | 59c | 20.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…f5a0backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f3…f11dbacked Yes | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a3…a5bcbacked Yes | 67c | 19.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…e181backed Yes | 78c | 18.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…5aa1backed Yes | 62c | 17.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed Yes | 63c | 17.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510d…e87fbacked Yes | 59c | 16.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe945…94bcbacked Yes | 60c | 16.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3abc…935ebacked Yes | 65c | 15.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…14aebacked Yes | 64c | 15.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…6732backed Yes | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 2°C on January 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 0°C on January 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 1°C on January 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 3°C on January 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C or higher on January 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.