TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9987…6e59

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
26
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: NHL, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 57 out of 100; worst Ncaa Basketball at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST1080%8 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+42.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
NHL — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Devils vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+84.1%+$25.22
Senators vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Sabres vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+47.9%+$6.34
Lightning vs. Starsbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+41.6%+$12.47
Kings vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+104.3%+$31.29
Bruins vs. Blackhawksbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+91.5%+$11.58
Hurricanes vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$22.3
Kraken vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+51%+$18.13
Sharks vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+57.7%+$20.19
Sharks vs. Capitalsbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+150%+$15
All 10 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tulane Green Wave vs. Florida Atlantic Owls: O/U 156.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Fordham Rams vs. Davidson Wildcats: O/U 132.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Central Connecticut State Blue Devils vs. Mercyhurst Lakersbacked Mercyhurst Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+92.5%+$20.82
New Hampshire Wildcats vs. Maine Black Bears: O/U 130.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$12.4
American Eagles vs. Army Black Knights: O/U 146.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$19.6
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Maryland Terrapinsbacked Penn State Nittany Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Florida State Seminolesbacked Florida State Seminoles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Spread: Hofstra Pride (-5.5)backed Elon Phoenix · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+104.1%+$31.22
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs. Canisius Golden Griffins: O/U 134.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+92.6%+$30.09
All 9 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+241%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+241%+$50.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jan 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Malmö FF vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+47.1%+$7.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Players vs internet kings - Map 1 Winnerbacked Players · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+36.9%+$10.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Texans vs. Patriotsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.