TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Stars

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Lightning, Stars
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,457,052
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,478,110

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,457,052 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,071 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Lightning54c464,341$250,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214,200.8120354.2%110 W · 93 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Stars46c189,273$87,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87,065.7738748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Lightning52c119,708$62,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,501.556152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Stars47c100,000$46,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,50022443.8%98 W · 126 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Stars46c100,000$46,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,0007946.8%37 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb0…d8b6backed Stars48c71,658$34,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,2001040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Stars48c60,141$28,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,874.31,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98f7…b3e4backed Lightning52c50,575$26,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,024.9710753.3%57 W · 50 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Lightning51c43,176$22,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,15667051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Lightning53c40,000$21,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,799.998657%49 W · 37 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed Stars47c30,030$14,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,114.15052%26 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Lightning53c30,000$15,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,099.9125449.2%125 W · 129 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Stars46c17,678$8,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,174.532,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Stars46c16,513$7,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,605.121,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x419b…0944backed Stars47c15,617$7,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,339.982250%11 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Stars47c14,840$6,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,974.848549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Stars47c14,186$6,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,641.3452050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Stars46c12,222$5,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,622.1213363.2%84 W · 49 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Stars49c10,172$4,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,984.2715949.7%79 W · 80 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Stars8c10,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fe3…e0fdbacked Stars50c9,698$4,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,849.0619051.1%97 W · 93 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Lightning53c9,355$4,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,396.998252.4%43 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Stars48c9,000$4,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,36021036.2%76 W · 134 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Stars46c9,000$4,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,169.9930447.4%144 W · 160 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4738…df78backed Stars48c8,089$3,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,882.725735.1%20 W · 37 L-13.5wins-0.24per pick59cpaid-40.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0xf9ea…380dbacked Stars47c7,322$3,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,441.573636.1%13 W · 23 L-5.8wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Lightning52c7,100$3,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,38326058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Stars47c6,500$3,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0551,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Stars16c6,352$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.3489636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x200c…58eabacked Stars49c6,173$3,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,010.853764.9%24 W · 13 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Stars47c6,000$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,82058352.1%304 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning52c6,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,879.991,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Stars49c5,600$2,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,743.814553.1%77 W · 68 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Stars48c5,408$2,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,595.844957.1%28 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Lightning52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40013948.2%67 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Stars47c4,974$2,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,337.7824654.5%134 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf2a…0525backed Stars48c4,645$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250.39254.3%50 W · 42 L-0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Lightning53c4,000$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,88029651.7%153 W · 143 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Stars47c4,000$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,88033345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35ac…92a7backed Stars49c4,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,96027548.7%134 W · 141 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked Stars47c3,960$1,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,861.214848%71 W · 77 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Stars47c3,762$1,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,767.9411745.3%53 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9da8…e5afbacked Lightning54c3,670$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6701100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+83.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe10…95cbbacked Stars49c3,600$1,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,764757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Stars47c3,579$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.9947951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44b9…0598backed Lightning57c3,534$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.594146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Stars43c3,390$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,464.4195049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Stars47c3,200$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5044837.5%18 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Stars47c3,163$1,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,486.6161953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Stars47c3,086$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.341,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Lightning52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.9210848.1%52 W · 56 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Stars46c2,899$1,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333.6224349.8%121 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Lightning53c2,550$1,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.6128251.8%146 W · 136 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c1c…b4f1backed Stars49c2,546$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.321921.1%4 W · 15 L-6.8wins-0.36per pick57cpaid-61.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x33d0…f7ebbacked Stars47c2,532$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1901353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x936f…d171backed Stars46c2,500$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1508134.6%28 W · 53 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-23.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Stars47c2,403$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,123.072,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Stars42c2,320$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.471,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Stars48c2,182$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.922,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Stars48c2,071$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.2445955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1914…ee1ebacked Lightning52c2,061$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4a5…a5f9backed Stars48c2,055$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df1…2da7backed Stars12c2,040$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.812722.2%6 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-34.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Lightning53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94018547%87 W · 98 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Stars48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96011749.6%58 W · 59 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Lightning51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.9983652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f6d…4ad5backed Lightning51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.782147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f5…8aafbacked Lightning51c1,943$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.881250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Stars49c1,903$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.3993953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85ae…b51ebacked Stars50c1,752$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.9540%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf74a…a91cbacked Stars15c1,752$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.7110251%52 W · 50 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa63c…27a4backed Stars48c1,700$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.221963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+24.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Stars36c1,663$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.222,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Stars5c1,544$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9454418%98 W · 446 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b05…b227backed Lightning52c1,543$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.92040%8 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Stars29c1,533$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.0811248.2%54 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2df…94b9backed Stars47c1,500$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Stars46c1,500$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69036038.6%139 W · 221 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeed1…a957backed Lightning50c1,499$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.51040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0db…b33abacked Lightning50c1,499$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.51050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddd6…ab28backed Stars50c1,499$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.51050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb90b…7af3backed Stars50c1,499$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.51266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee51…73e4backed Lightning50c1,499$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.51241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x907d…c88fbacked Stars50c1,499$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0ae…d2d5backed Stars50c1,499$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.51457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf243…fbefbacked Lightning50c1,499$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.51450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x67dc…10f8backed Lightning50c1,498$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7491662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b09…a456backed Lightning50c1,498$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.31per pick57cpaid+59.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x483a…3e2abacked Stars50c1,498$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde6f…9a2abacked Stars50c1,498$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7491553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x776d…dfc7backed Stars50c1,497$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.51080%8 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+47.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x51e6…8ca8backed Lightning50c1,497$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.51060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…7ccfbacked Lightning50c1,497$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.51266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2db4…6751backed Stars50c1,497$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.5757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-6.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0258…b41bbacked Stars50c1,496$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dc7…d02dbacked Stars50c1,496$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7481353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe135…8ba0backed Lightning50c1,496$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7481361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x286d…69e3backed Lightning50c1,496$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7481266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc16e…d39abacked Lightning50c1,496$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x166d…fa7bbacked Stars50c1,496$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.