NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa91caef5a0de88ce45bc4f2baa05ae8de8b1cc98387fccdd360f39571ea5dfb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Lightning, Stars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Lightning | 32c | 6,767$2,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,620.45 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Stars | 67c | 3,882$2,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,616.69 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Lightning | 33c | 2,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,675.15 | 185 | 47%87 W · 98 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Stars | 69c | 2,203$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.85 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Stars | 67c | 1,672$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.24 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Stars | 69c | 1,157$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.33 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 32c | 856.84$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.65 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Stars | 67c | 716.3$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.92 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Stars | 68c | 680.82$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.98 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Stars | 68c | 655.16$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.51 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Stars | 69c | 652.17$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…0c8fbacked Lightning | 32c | 318.31$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.45 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Lightning | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Stars | 70c | 283.33$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.33 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Lightning | 27c | 254$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.42 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Lightning | 30c | 250$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Lightning | 33c | 249.97$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.48 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…e7b5backed Lightning | 33c | 249.97$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.48 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Lightning | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce70…0be2backed Lightning | 33c | 124.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.73 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Stars | 68c | 120.28$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.79 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Lightning | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Stars | 67c | 63.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Lightning | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…0dd5backed Stars | 69c | 28.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Stars | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9371…3aecbacked Stars | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Stars | 73c | 19.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6460…84efbacked Stars | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Lightning vs. StarsLightning won
- Lightning vs. Stars: O/U 5.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Stars: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.