Europa Conference League · resolved market
Malmö FF vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98e2adc7de97b1acc0e0049617fad556642326f713a85d76baa6ca7a6d104491
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 75c | 7,350$5,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,837.5 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 25c | 5,676$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,427.3 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 76c | 2,476$1,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.24 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 76cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 25c | 2,194$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.73 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 20c | 1,203$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.82 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 33c | 613.71$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.84 | 139 | 20.1%28 W · 111 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 34c | 572.81$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.76 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 71c | 360$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.93 | 706 | 39.5%279 W · 427 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 67c | 199.98$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 68c | 190$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 66c | 164$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 68c | 112.07$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 920 | 50.9%468 W · 452 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Under | 67c | 98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Over | 33c | 89.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Under | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Over | 44c | 51.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Over | 33c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…2c48backed Over | 34c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…e730backed Over | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6d…d6bdbacked Over | 33c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 66c | 34.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9987…6e59backed Under | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 67c | 16.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…6a66backed Under | 68c | 15.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Malmö FF vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 3.5this page
- Malmö FF vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Malmö FF vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 1.5Under won
- Malmö FF vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 2.5Under won
- Malmö FF vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-1.5)Malmö FF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.