Europa Conference League · resolved market

Malmö FF vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa2eda9ec847846b0627e46e2ce347db62313f2119806f7b538dd6ce810900ec

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $33,368
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $33,369

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,368 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdef9…2d16backed Under	44c	17,565$7,728 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,837.18	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over	54c	10,280$5,576 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,576.06	848	50.8%431 W · 417 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	48c	3,875$1,866 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,009.61	3,726	47%1,750 W · 1,976 L	+20.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Over	52c	2,510$1,305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,305.14	82	45.1%37 W · 45 L	-5.2wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e16…a795backed Over	56c	1,786$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under	48c	1,400$672 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$728	333	49.8%166 W · 167 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over	52c	800$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416	91	48.4%44 W · 47 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Under	43c	712.4$306 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$406.07	65	58.5%38 W · 27 L	+3.9wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Over	53c	599.98$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.99	57	38.6%22 W · 35 L	-6.9wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-24%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Over	56c	595.45$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.45	55	45.5%25 W · 30 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb53c…eb0cbacked Over	53c	453.17$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.18	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	-4.3wins	-0.16per pick	51cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over	56c	420$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.2	129	48.8%63 W · 66 L	-6.5wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Over	56c	420$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.2	84	44%37 W · 47 L	-6.8wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a1a…d33ebacked Under	44c	409.5$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$229.43	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	55cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over	56c	400$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224	246	55.7%137 W · 109 L	-8.9wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Over	56c	330$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.8	80	46.3%37 W · 43 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over	52c	320$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.4	94	44.7%42 W · 52 L	-7.2wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-18%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43de…d169backed Over	49c	317.98$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over	56c	300$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	82	50%41 W · 41 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Over	52c	300$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	89	53.9%48 W · 41 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x329c…18dfbacked Over	56c	300$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Over	56c	280$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.8	85	54.1%46 W · 39 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	45c	265.23$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145.97	919	50.9%468 W · 451 L	+15.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under	48c	265$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.8	131	49.6%65 W · 66 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over	56c	250$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	237	57%135 W · 102 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf26b…f3b8backed Over	50c	241.93$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.97	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Over	52c	200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	58	53.4%31 W · 27 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over	52c	200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	147	56.5%83 W · 64 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Under	45c	199.99$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111	88	47.7%42 W · 46 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over	56c	188.31$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.45	116	43.1%50 W · 66 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over	53c	181.76$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.33	139	20.1%28 W · 111 L	-7.3wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd94…c56cbacked Over	58c	172.41$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.4wins	-0.24per pick	54cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Over	52c	170$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.4	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over	56c	170$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.2	64	48.4%31 W · 33 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	+2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Over	56c	170$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.2	72	44.4%32 W · 40 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Over	52c	169.99$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.4	76	47.4%36 W · 40 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	47c	161.36$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.81	702	39.3%276 W · 426 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Over	56c	160$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.6	85	51.8%44 W · 41 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Over	56c	150$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	75	44%33 W · 42 L	-5.3wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Over	56c	120$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.2	78	47.4%37 W · 41 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Over	56c	120$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.2	80	52.5%42 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Over	56c	120$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.2	81	46.9%38 W · 43 L	-4.1wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-12%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Over	56c	120$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.2	80	57.5%46 W · 34 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x46af…1f6abacked Over	56c	100$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	45	51.1%23 W · 22 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6aa…3746backed Over	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b5…798cbacked Over	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	44	50%22 W · 22 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Over	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	266	47.4%126 W · 140 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x522f…1415backed Under	45c	100$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	27	63%17 W · 10 L	+3.6wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Under	42c	98.99$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.09	52	42.3%22 W · 30 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Under	51c	97.94$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.99	56	60.7%34 W · 22 L	+4.0wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Under	43c	90$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.3	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-7.8wins	-0.16per pick	39cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x48a9…0d53backed Over	55c	78$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.9	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+21%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Over	56c	70$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.2	94	50%47 W · 47 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Over	56c	60$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	77	48.1%37 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Over	56c	60$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	78	52.6%41 W · 37 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Over	56c	60$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	79	51.9%41 W · 38 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Over	56c	60$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	108	52.8%57 W · 51 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Over	52c	60$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	61	44.3%27 W · 34 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over	56c	53.57$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	239	49.4%118 W · 121 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under	48c	52.08$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.08	384	53.1%204 W · 180 L	+11.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90a5…9dccbacked Over	52c	52.08$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.08	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+3.2wins	+0.14per pick	45cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb166…3105backed Over	55c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	55	47.3%26 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x884d…1da6backed Under	44c	50$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	43	65.1%28 W · 15 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	61cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	57c	50$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	638	57.2%365 W · 273 L	+35.3wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x06da…0a4abacked Under	44c	45.45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.45	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.6wins	+0.16per pick	44cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d73…be4fbacked Over	57c	43.86$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	69	29%20 W · 49 L	-3.5wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c16…630fbacked Over	57c	43.86$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	32	50%16 W · 16 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over	59c	42.37$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	75	28%21 W · 54 L	-9.5wins	-0.13per pick	41cpaid	-41%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	56c	38.66$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.69	338	47%159 W · 179 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Under	48c	37$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.24	38	55.3%21 W · 17 L	+3.0wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+10%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x380c…1099backed Over	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	109	63.3%69 W · 40 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	63cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd179…361ebacked Over	56c	35.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.21per pick	54cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Over	56c	30.69$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.22	90	56.7%51 W · 39 L	+4.5wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed Under	44c	30$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.8	69	56.5%39 W · 30 L	+5.5wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc74c…2413backed Under	45c	27.58$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.17	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa15…95e3backed Over	57c	26.6$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.25	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-4.9wins	-0.18per pick	53cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0aae…e845backed Under	45c	24$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.2	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x622a…9099backed Over	49c	23.31$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.42	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.29per pick	49cpaid	-63.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Over	64c	18.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.08	428	44.9%192 W · 236 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Malmö FF vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 2.5this page
Malmö FF vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Malmö FF vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 1.5Under won
Malmö FF vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 3.5Under won
Malmö FF vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-1.5)Malmö FF won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Malmö FF vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event