Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9014e206584ef4f7d2bbde2584ff19e011a29ca71e72dccd0c00e8572e1b0acb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Malmö FFof FK Crvena zvezda, Malmö FF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Malmö FF | 72c | 3,372$2,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.59 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FK Crvena zvezda | 29c | 2,694$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.97 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked FK Crvena zvezda | 27c | 583.47$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.3 | 139 | 20.1%28 W · 111 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed FK Crvena zvezda | 26c | 456.98$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.81 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked FK Crvena zvezda | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -8.0wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Malmö FF | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Malmö FF | 51c | 250$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Malmö FF | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Malmö FF | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked FK Crvena zvezda | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Malmö FF | 66c | 88.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Malmö FF | 73c | 86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked FK Crvena zvezda | 37c | 85.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4659…4da9backed FK Crvena zvezda | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Malmö FF | 48c | 62.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Malmö FF | 68c | 60.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked FK Crvena zvezda | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Malmö FF | 74c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed FK Crvena zvezda | 27c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7825…89a0backed Malmö FF | 74c | 35.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Malmö FF | 74c | 34.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Malmö FF | 68c | 30.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Malmö FF | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-1.5)this page
- Malmö FF vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Malmö FF vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 1.5Under won
- Malmö FF vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 2.5Under won
- Malmö FF vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 3.5Under won
- Malmö FF vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.