TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Flyers vs. Golden Knights

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Flyersof Flyers, Golden Knights
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$347,350
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$350,094

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $347,350 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 346 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x98f7…b3e4backed Flyers42c71,426$29,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,436.2910753.3%57 W · 50 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Flyers41c64,791$26,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,148.021,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Golden Knights58c48,077$28,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,078.151,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Golden Knights58c29,895$17,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,204.162951.2%322 W · 307 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked Golden Knights57c27,921$16,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,035.8432744%144 W · 183 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb859…e244backed Flyers34c20,000$6,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,20011052.7%58 W · 52 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Flyers34c20,000$6,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,199.9567051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Golden Knights58c10,890$6,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,316.215949.7%79 W · 80 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Flyers33c8,968$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,008.869548.4%46 W · 49 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Golden Knights64c8,843$5,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,685.281,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dc7…a83cbacked Golden Knights66c6,999$4,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,619.53366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf35…b5eabacked Flyers34c6,777$2,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,472.5211445.6%52 W · 62 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Flyers35c6,500$2,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2251,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Golden Knights59c6,315$3,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,749.722150.2%111 W · 110 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Golden Knights65c5,874$3,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,820.8661748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Golden Knights59c5,400$3,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1694148.8%20 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Golden Knights26c4,489$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.8739344.8%176 W · 217 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Flyers56c4,061$2,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,772.5895049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0537…13b6backed Golden Knights65c4,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6003748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Golden Knights60c4,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4004057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Golden Knights60c3,645$2,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1737358.9%43 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ada…8550backed Flyers34c3,600$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3762100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+115.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Flyers43c3,497$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,996.9631550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Flyers34c3,156$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,087.7533345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Golden Knights58c3,000$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,74021048.1%101 W · 109 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Golden Knights22c2,570$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.462540%10 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-26.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1043…18ccbacked Golden Knights66c2,500$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,65010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Golden Knights65c2,500$1,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,624.9783652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29ae…4d2cbacked Flyers55c2,423$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.047354.8%40 W · 33 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked Golden Knights59c2,415$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4254158.5%24 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Golden Knights58c2,410$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,397.7713437.3%50 W · 84 L-0.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Golden Knights65c2,233$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,455.526955.8%150 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Golden Knights49c2,219$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.561,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Golden Knights58c2,100$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.9961953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6125…1b5fbacked Golden Knights58c2,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-63%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Golden Knights59c1,930$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,131.7717247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Golden Knights60c1,893$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,136.091,20260.1%722 W · 480 L+51.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Golden Knights35c1,718$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.342,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9f88…2a93backed Golden Knights67c1,709$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-48.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Golden Knights59c1,695$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006253.2%33 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Golden Knights26c1,539$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40599638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Golden Knights66c1,530$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.632,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Golden Knights67c1,493$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00085250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef23…5b60backed Flyers34c1,404$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.4864242.2%271 W · 371 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Golden Knights49c1,285$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.691,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42fd…4661backed Golden Knights48c1,247$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.972948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Golden Knights59c1,237$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.8310158.4%59 W · 42 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+17.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Flyers33c1,200$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80035349.6%175 W · 178 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf63a…90e6backed Golden Knights53c1,155$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6124141.5%17 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Flyers34c1,124$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.8425045.2%113 W · 137 L+13.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Golden Knights1c1,111$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.117450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe268…3a2cbacked Golden Knights66c1,100$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Golden Knights66c1,065$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.975155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked Golden Knights58c1,046$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.7210445.2%47 W · 57 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Flyers33c1,043$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.860249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Golden Knights32c1,008$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.5813747.4%65 W · 72 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ca…5d8dbacked Flyers35c1,003$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.861861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Golden Knights59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5901,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0919…fcbcbacked Golden Knights1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103458.8%20 W · 14 L+4.7wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x56fe…849ebacked Golden Knights65c999.99$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.991241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a89…2f26backed Golden Knights65c999.99$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.9970547.7%336 W · 369 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ae1…faefbacked Flyers33c999.95$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.97875%6 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+74.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf35f…64c5backed Flyers33c984.85$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.851346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e36…6ce1backed Golden Knights66c969.7$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf92…4bfdbacked Golden Knights66c964$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.246341.3%26 W · 37 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Flyers55c958.91$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.063,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Flyers33c952.14$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.4551044.5%227 W · 283 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Golden Knights66c919.89$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.1343548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Golden Knights45c912.47$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.446434.4%22 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2194…2a53backed Flyers34c911.41$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.53366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick30cpaid+59.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Golden Knights59c875$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.2512941.9%54 W · 75 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Golden Knights56c843.77$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.952,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf74a…a91cbacked Golden Knights51c773.45$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.5310251%52 W · 50 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6aa…3746backed Flyers36c765.53$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.251060%6 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+29.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Golden Knights66c750$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49538445.8%176 W · 208 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Golden Knights65c750$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.562249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee7e…61bbbacked Golden Knights60c734.52$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44041248.3%199 W · 213 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Flyers57c722.67$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.461,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ff8…8a76backed Golden Knights58c689.66$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006245.2%28 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…a569backed Flyers35c685.71$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.7122655.8%126 W · 100 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5440…2f1ebacked Golden Knights66c677.67$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.261546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Golden Knights67c629$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.2679350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Flyers33c628.56$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.351,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Flyers35c601.75$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.4860337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Flyers34c600$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39935245.2%159 W · 193 L-19.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5753…4f13backed Golden Knights66c589.09$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.8666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf69d…ffefbacked Flyers35c571.43$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.431573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.5wins+0.24per pick50cpaid+51.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Golden Knights26c569$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.2522728.2%64 W · 163 L-17.6wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-37.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e8d…ce8ebacked Flyers35c550$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+93.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Golden Knights52c531.84$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.4627357.5%157 W · 116 L+18.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+17.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x69d9…9881backed Golden Knights66c530.3$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35030657.8%177 W · 129 L+0.5wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Golden Knights66c500$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33038046.6%177 W · 203 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Golden Knights35c492$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.4234538.6%133 W · 212 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Golden Knights46c490$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.41,38447.1%652 W · 732 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Golden Knights15c488.86$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2789636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7381…5b63backed Golden Knights46c479.92$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.7260042.8%257 W · 343 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Golden Knights51c470.36$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.371,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dbc…18a0backed Flyers43c465.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.124763.8%30 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Golden Knights11c462.69$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8454418%98 W · 446 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Golden Knights47c455.21$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.4657157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.