NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8565f9348fc1507f5c32b99ba77a68588f8e78e72a3eb29e3d388b9e2b360340
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Over | 47c | 40,000$18,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,799.99 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Under | 53c | 15,677$8,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,368.2 | 170 | 57.6%98 W · 72 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 53c | 9,940$5,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,671.8 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 53c | 7,151$3,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,358.91 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Over | 48c | 4,871$2,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,334.16 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…13b6backed Over | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 53c | 3,661$1,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720.67 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 53c | 3,624$1,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,697.58 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 54c | 2,086$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.07 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Under | 53c | 1,937$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.25 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 1,428$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.82 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 52c | 1,036$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.28 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 49c | 1,001$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.48 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 603 | 37.5%226 W · 377 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 54c | 715$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.9 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 52c | 527.75$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.26 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 52c | 346.15$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.15 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Over | 49c | 308.11$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 49c | 307.19$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 45c | 248$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Over | 48c | 240$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.37 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 54c | 196$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.27 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Under | 54c | 160.97$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.05 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Under | 52c | 156.73$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.23 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 51c | 120.15$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…8fd6backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 177 | 54.2%96 W · 81 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…492bbacked Over | 45c | 99.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9371…3aecbacked Under | 54c | 94.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 52c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…416abacked Under | 58c | 88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 44c | 68.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 47c | 57.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…807dbacked Over | 49c | 51.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 53c | 49.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Under | 53c | 49.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 305 | 49.2%150 W · 155 L | -14.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Under | 52c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 47c | 31.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 46c | 28.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Under | 51c | 25.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53db…480ebacked Under | 57c | 25.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5this page
- Flyers vs. Golden KnightsFlyers won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.