NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x858939a9624236aa7767dc9134c51f3909048166b707f6adeb58885e76e86d97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flyersof Golden Knights, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1375…a070backed Golden Knights | 43c | 4,628$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,990.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdc…2454backed Flyers | 57c | 4,411$2,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,896.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bde…ca3abacked Golden Knights | 43c | 4,411$1,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,896.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…cca5backed Flyers | 57c | 2,547$1,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf70d…ef69backed Flyers | 57c | 2,081$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Golden Knights | 45c | 1,388$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.56 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Flyers | 55c | 1,258$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.18 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Flyers | 54c | 1,224$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.39 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Flyers | 55c | 1,146$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.69 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Golden Knights | 46c | 872.12$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b7…cc32backed Golden Knights | 47c | 700$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Golden Knights | 45c | 459.72$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Golden Knights | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Flyers | 56c | 315.77$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.94 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Flyers | 53c | 264.4$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.27 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Golden Knights | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Flyers | 59c | 238.2$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.84 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Flyers | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 170 | 57.6%98 W · 72 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb337…5589backed Golden Knights | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 486 | 54.1%263 W · 223 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…1efbbacked Golden Knights | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Flyers | 54c | 199.41$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.73 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Golden Knights | 31c | 168$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Flyers | 54c | 143$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 129 | 43.4%56 W · 73 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Golden Knights | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Flyers | 69c | 124.39$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Golden Knights | 47c | 123.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 177 | 55.9%99 W · 78 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Flyers | 55c | 120.2$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.37 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Golden Knights | 46c | 107.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Golden Knights | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Flyers | 80c | 78.29$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Flyers | 55c | 73.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Golden Knights | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Flyers | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Golden Knights | 42c | 47.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Flyers | 59c | 45.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…99e5backed Golden Knights | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Golden Knights | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Flyers | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Flyers | 55c | 36.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Flyers | 70c | 24.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Golden Knights | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Flyers vs. Golden KnightsFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.