TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Senators vs. Red Wings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Red Wingsof Senators, Red Wings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,449,799
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,559,720

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,449,799 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Senators48c590,266$283,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283,319.2620354.2%110 W · 93 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98f7…b3e4backed Red Wings54c487,924$262,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225,875.2310753.3%57 W · 50 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Senators46c400,082$184,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184,358.7815953.5%85 W · 74 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Senators46c225,734$103,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103,539.0856152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b4…a278backed Red Wings54c213,600$115,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98,256.0610349.5%51 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cb0…d8b6backed Senators48c122,609$58,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,3561040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Red Wings52c100,000$52,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,00022443.8%98 W · 126 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca1…dd13backed Red Wings54c90,000$48,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,4001747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3ae…3020backed Red Wings55c73,225$40,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,225.391850%9 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Red Wings52c60,000$31,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,799.954242.9%18 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Red Wings52c59,998$31,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,799.1138748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee17…b46ebacked Senators46c54,000$24,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,839.871968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Red Wings52c53,859$27,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,933.21,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Red Wings52c50,000$26,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,0001,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Senators46c50,000$23,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,999.952445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Red Wings52c40,436$21,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,276.042,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Red Wings53c33,488$17,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,739.4426849.6%133 W · 135 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Red Wings54c33,352$18,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,341.958354.2%45 W · 38 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Senators46c29,839$13,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,725.8425449.2%125 W · 129 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Red Wings52c28,923$15,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,883.041,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Red Wings52c18,948$9,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,094.8813363.2%84 W · 49 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Senators46c18,888$8,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,688.4821850.9%111 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Red Wings53c17,965$9,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,461.821,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Red Wings54c17,500$9,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,05013553.3%72 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf90e…0b56backed Red Wings52c17,000$8,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,16013449.3%66 W · 68 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Red Wings54c13,299$7,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,117.5424654.5%134 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Red Wings55c10,727$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,827.274957.1%28 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Senators44c10,118$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,500.321,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Red Wings52c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,80066951%341 W · 328 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Red Wings53c10,000$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,699.9831654.7%173 W · 143 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2194…2a53backed Red Wings54c9,410$5,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,328.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick30cpaid+59.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Senators47c9,000$4,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,23051045.5%232 W · 278 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49d1…2a44backed Senators45c9,000$4,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0505152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Red Wings52c8,115$4,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,895.1611745.3%53 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cb6…76e0backed Red Wings53c7,767$4,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,624.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200c…58eabacked Red Wings53c7,524$4,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,522.033764.9%24 W · 13 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Red Wings56c6,630$3,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,945.531,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Red Wings54c6,559$3,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,017.262231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-38.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Senators46c6,500$2,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,99025446.5%118 W · 136 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Senators44c6,500$2,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,859.971,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccdb…ffa9backed Senators47c6,383$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0002846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Red Wings53c6,224$3,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,925.2228251.8%146 W · 136 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Senators44c6,208$2,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,731.5732946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Red Wings53c6,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,80058352.1%304 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Senators45c5,410$2,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,433.5533243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Red Wings49c5,187$2,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,626.071,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Red Wings54c5,072$2,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,333.1275251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b8b…15babacked Red Wings56c5,062$2,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,247.745549.1%27 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Red Wings53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,35027243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Senators47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3508134.6%28 W · 53 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Red Wings36c5,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,20033345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Senators44c5,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20013948.2%67 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked Red Wings53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3503953.8%21 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Senators61c4,861$2,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,983.5295049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44b9…0598backed Red Wings57c4,616$2,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,989.294146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Red Wings55c4,520$2,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,026.391,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9373…4c6bbacked Red Wings54c4,325$2,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,989.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Red Wings53c4,116$2,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,941.0114753.7%79 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Senators45c4,052$1,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,823.541,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Senators45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80086649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Senators45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80029651.7%153 W · 143 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb603…754bbacked Red Wings53c4,000$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8803740.5%15 W · 22 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Red Wings56c4,000$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,76022546.2%104 W · 121 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30ce…fdcebacked Senators44c3,787$1,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,671.9615057.3%86 W · 64 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+44.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Red Wings53c3,712$1,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,738.872,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Senators46c3,500$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,61024945.4%113 W · 136 L-16.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Senators46c3,480$1,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600.861959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Red Wings52c3,252$1,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,546.022,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Red Wings54c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,38025552.5%134 W · 121 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Red Wings54c3,000$1,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,39068449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Red Wings54c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,38023047.4%109 W · 121 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Senators47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41030447.4%144 W · 160 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce4d…a7fabacked Red Wings55c2,894$1,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.625555.3%141 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Senators47c2,723$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283.632,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked Red Wings54c2,664$1,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.4414848%71 W · 77 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Red Wings42c2,633$1,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,534.2657157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc13a…f97fbacked Red Wings40c2,520$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,519.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+152%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2df…94b9backed Red Wings54c2,500$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Red Wings54c2,457$1,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,14026955.8%150 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Senators53c2,427$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.21,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6238…0523backed Red Wings54c2,375$1,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.58245.1%37 W · 45 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Red Wings55c2,230$1,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.532251.9%167 W · 155 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Senators45c2,222$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00014940.9%61 W · 88 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Red Wings53c2,000$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.981,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb763…247dbacked Red Wings52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9601650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe3…e0fdbacked Red Wings57c1,972$1,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84819051.1%97 W · 93 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Senators46c1,945$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90028152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Red Wings53c1,876$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.9247951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef05…aa90backed Red Wings39c1,875$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+157.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Senators40c1,872$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.8499638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa558…1b44backed Red Wings53c1,848$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.754240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb529…2a98backed Senators45c1,826$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.74540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Red Wings42c1,694$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$990.734538.6%133 W · 212 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Red Wings54c1,615$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.0883149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8333…eb93backed Red Wings54c1,603$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.383351.5%17 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b05…b227backed Senators49c1,599$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.372040%8 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Senators36c1,590$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.642254.3%229 W · 193 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf63a…90e6backed Red Wings45c1,571$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.934141.5%17 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b07…5dc3backed Red Wings56c1,519$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Senators48c1,506$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.877838.5%30 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.