NHL · resolved market
Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c7fc05d08ba32cbe7eea2e33a424309a5009baf4b8f96c139be7af617cd034b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Senatorsof Red Wings, Senators
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Red Wings | 34c | 6,767$2,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,294.83 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Senators | 67c | 3,323$2,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.43 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Senators | 66c | 2,360$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.4 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Senators | 66c | 2,018$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.94 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8333…eb93backed Red Wings | 33c | 1,640$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.2 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Red Wings | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Senators | 66c | 1,053$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.02 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Senators | 67c | 866$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.78 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Red Wings | 22c | 835$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.16 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Senators | 65c | 362.46$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.36 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Senators | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Senators | 75c | 293.93$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.62 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Red Wings | 24c | 293.31$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Senators | 66c | 287.78$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.17 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f52…c525backed Senators | 77c | 260.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Red Wings | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed Senators | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Red Wings | 35c | 222.86$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df1…2da7backed Red Wings | 30c | 214.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Red Wings | 25c | 160.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Red Wings | 33c | 158$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Red Wings | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Red Wings | 22c | 141.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Red Wings | 34c | 130$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Red Wings | 21c | 121.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Senators | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Senators | 65c | 100.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Red Wings | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Senators | 74c | 93.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Red Wings | 34c | 87.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Senators | 66c | 77.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…6631backed Red Wings | 18c | 71.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Red Wings | 34c | 68.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Red Wings | 32c | 65.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Senators | 68c | 65.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 164 | 63.4%104 W · 60 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Senators | 65c | 62.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…8ba0backed Red Wings | 35c | 62.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Senators | 66c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a3…790fbacked Red Wings | 34c | 51.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…99e5backed Red Wings | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Senators | 67c | 42.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…5ddabacked Senators | 74c | 33.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Red Wings | 34c | 33.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Senators | 66c | 32.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Red Wings | 33c | 32.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 129 | 43.4%56 W · 73 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Red Wings | 34c | 32.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Senators | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Senators | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…70c7backed Senators | 66c | 28.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…39d7backed Senators | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Senators | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Senators | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)this page
- Senators vs. Red WingsRed Wings won
- Senators vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.