TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Blackhawks vs. Penguins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Penguinsof Blackhawks, Penguins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,005,061
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,048,422

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,005,061 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 396 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9976…67dabacked Blackhawks40c399,944$159,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159,438.2419848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Penguins60c200,000$120,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80,0001,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Blackhawks39c150,000$58,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,499.9710840.7%44 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Penguins61c115,385$70,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,000.284242.9%18 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Penguins63c85,825$53,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,976.2848545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Penguins60c80,269$48,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,804.7326849.6%133 W · 135 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Blackhawks39c55,000$21,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,449.999548.4%46 W · 49 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked Blackhawks37c53,393$19,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,902.0732744%144 W · 183 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Penguins60c43,282$25,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,312.847951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Penguins61c40,984$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,983.613243.8%14 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Penguins61c25,818$15,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,169.051,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Penguins61c21,311$13,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,311.488848.9%43 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Blackhawks39c20,539$7,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,998.241,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Blackhawks37c19,807$7,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,328.594148.8%20 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Penguins60c14,604$8,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,841.512,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Penguins61c13,850$8,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,380.921,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Penguins61c12,885$7,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,025.188450%42 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Penguins61c11,735$7,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,576.468453.6%45 W · 39 L-6.2wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Penguins61c11,071$6,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,276.8261748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Blackhawks0c11,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba81…dc35backed Penguins61c10,577$6,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,124.875364.2%34 W · 19 L+6.4wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+34.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Penguins63c9,887$6,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,658.1614553.1%77 W · 68 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Penguins61c9,432$5,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,678.4450049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Penguins61c9,265$5,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,613.3579350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Blackhawks39c9,000$3,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,51051045.5%232 W · 278 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Blackhawks23c7,278$1,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,698.4489636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Penguins61c6,622$4,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,572.336949.3%34 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Blackhawks37c6,500$2,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4051,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Penguins61c6,500$3,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,53510145.5%46 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Blackhawks38c6,083$2,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,285.941,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Blackhawks39c5,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,95025446.5%118 W · 136 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Penguins60c5,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00031654.7%173 W · 143 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf69…9076backed Blackhawks39c5,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,949.991442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6337…62c5backed Penguins60c5,000$3,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,974.991952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Penguins61c4,918$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,918.0331550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Blackhawks39c4,805$1,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,873.9460337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf35f…64c5backed Penguins61c4,685$2,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,827.071346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Blackhawks39c4,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.9868449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Penguins61c3,893$2,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,531.0722852.6%120 W · 108 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Blackhawks37c3,809$1,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,426.921,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08a4…5c3fbacked Penguins60c3,554$2,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,421.630551.5%157 W · 148 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Penguins61c3,238$1,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,255.0661950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29ae…4d2cbacked Penguins79c3,173$2,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.117354.8%40 W · 33 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Blackhawks0c3,133$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.447450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Penguins61c3,000$1,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,16562346.9%292 W · 331 L-3.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb4b7…3c8bbacked Penguins60c3,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2007347.9%35 W · 38 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Penguins61c2,808$1,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.018650%43 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc932…e6a5backed Penguins63c2,718$1,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.921384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick64cpaid+31.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Penguins60c2,666$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.452050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x936f…d171backed Blackhawks38c2,657$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.228134.6%28 W · 53 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-23.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Penguins60c2,507$1,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.72,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Blackhawks39c2,500$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97584953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Penguins61c2,500$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97575251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Blackhawks1c2,489$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.891458.3%12 W · 133 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+135.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d98…4d2dbacked Penguins62c2,457$1,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.612871.4%20 W · 8 L+4.8wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+37.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Blackhawks37c2,432$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90033243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Penguins60c2,405$1,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.8827048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Penguins61c2,400$1,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93660249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Blackhawks39c2,239$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.2120552.2%107 W · 98 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Penguins71c2,207$1,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.8357157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Penguins61c2,192$1,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.9238748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Penguins61c2,000$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79091945.6%419 W · 500 L-27.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Penguins61c1,967$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.2128152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x293f…3e52backed Blackhawks39c1,920$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.85736.8%21 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Penguins63c1,827$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.2448050.6%243 W · 237 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed Blackhawks39c1,795$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Blackhawks31c1,755$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.181,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Penguins63c1,704$1,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.8189249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb4…5c6cbacked Penguins57c1,684$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.765752.6%30 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fbe…b84fbacked Penguins61c1,666$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.6418258.2%106 W · 76 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Penguins61c1,605$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.769157.1%52 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1622…19bcbacked Blackhawks41c1,596$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Penguins61c1,520$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.844551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Penguins60c1,492$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.732,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03d9…e693backed Blackhawks1c1,406$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.96557.3%4 W · 51 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick3cpaid+70.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Penguins61c1,393$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.441,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9405…c071backed Penguins61c1,320$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.87647.4%36 W · 40 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad15…ee7fbacked Blackhawks38c1,316$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006946.4%32 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Blackhawks38c1,316$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50014940.9%61 W · 88 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9764…c40cbacked Blackhawks39c1,282$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008547.1%40 W · 45 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Penguins60c1,250$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50042847.2%202 W · 226 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae7a…5657backed Penguins63c1,195$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.155042%21 W · 29 L-6.5wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-21.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Blackhawks38c1,159$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.4548549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Penguins61c1,157$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45513954%75 W · 64 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd0d8…480bbacked Blackhawks39c1,125$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.779854.1%53 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Penguins61c1,124$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.3675155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Penguins61c1,016$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.3931848.1%153 W · 165 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb2f…936abacked Penguins61c1,016$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.148664%55 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+30.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Blackhawks37c1,006$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.2914140.4%57 W · 84 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Penguins60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40017057.1%97 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Penguins61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39033345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…f205backed Blackhawks1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102420.8%2 W · 240 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Penguins62c800$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30438445.8%176 W · 208 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x237e…a5f0backed Blackhawks41c750$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3106833.8%23 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-28.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb5f8…652dbacked Blackhawks38c744.74$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2832050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7c1…e2dcbacked Blackhawks40c700$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-65.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0944…6771backed Blackhawks39c700$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27310145.5%46 W · 55 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Penguins61c695.08$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.0831753.9%171 W · 146 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19f8…98f9backed Penguins61c655.74$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.7441757.3%239 W · 178 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Blackhawks35c651.5$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.881,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.