NHL · resolved market
Spread: Penguins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2a9a98c8b10b26af0bfa8d4066f321626c19aaa941f88e21ed0b9bf4df36cd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penguinsof Penguins, Blackhawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Blackhawks | 61c | 5,000$3,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,049.97 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Penguins | 39c | 3,043$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,856.11 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Blackhawks | 62c | 2,601$1,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,606.57 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b7…cc32backed Penguins | 42c | 2,383$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.14 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Blackhawks | 58c | 2,333$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.14 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Penguins | 38c | 1,300$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…8b56backed Penguins | 39c | 1,200$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Penguins | 38c | 875.67$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.92 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Penguins | 34c | 803.01$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.52 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Blackhawks | 67c | 730.94$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.38 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Penguins | 39c | 645$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.45 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Blackhawks | 61c | 336$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.46 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Penguins | 34c | 288.98$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.73 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Blackhawks | 59c | 241.54$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.51 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Blackhawks | 59c | 215.8$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.32 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Penguins | 39c | 180.65$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.65 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Penguins | 41c | 153.7$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.68 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Penguins | 40c | 151.89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.13 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Penguins | 40c | 113.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +17.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Blackhawks | 60c | 101.45$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Penguins | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Penguins | 39c | 89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Penguins | 41c | 85.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Blackhawks | 59c | 61.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Penguins | 39c | 55.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Penguins | 41c | 54.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Penguins | 39c | 51.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 162 | 37%60 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Blackhawks | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Penguins | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 310 | 47.4%147 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed Penguins | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Blackhawks | 61c | 49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Blackhawks | 59c | 48.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Penguins | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Penguins | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Penguins | 43c | 41.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Penguins | 39c | 40.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Penguins | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Penguins | 40c | 32.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Blackhawks | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Blackhawks | 60c | 26.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Blackhawks | 60c | 25.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Blackhawks | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)this page
- Blackhawks vs. PenguinsPenguins won
- Blackhawks vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Blackhawks vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.