Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x620d24e05a0839f300f9d970dd0cf742ecc25e9542720146591a7c4426deb1a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x492f…efaabacked Yes | 15c | 6,678$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 4c | 4,143$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.11 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 15c | 3,895$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.52 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 1c | 3,490$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0e…c45bbacked No | 71c | 2,190$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.67 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 15c | 1,984$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.95 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x790f…8ca5backed Yes | 26c | 1,138$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 3c | 999.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 25c | 995.77$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.89 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5a…1d35backed Yes | 33c | 932.78$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.58 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 75c | 911.62$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.62 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 11c | 889.67$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 37c | 864.59$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +70%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 10c | 788.2$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 37c | 766$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.42 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc104…a5c0backed No | 68c | 745.78$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 38c | 725.87$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.97 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 23c | 718.44$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.76 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed No | 67c | 699.97$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.22 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa3…841cbacked Yes | 51c | 687.97$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked No | 72c | 685.09$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.62 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3b…6b17backed Yes | 10c | 649.96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed No | 75c | 598.86$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.56 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a1…fc5abacked Yes | 27c | 558$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d8…ce69backed No | 73c | 558$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…23c9backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ee…da09backed Yes | 26c | 511.04$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.67 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x095d…52cfbacked No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -10.4wins | -0.36per pick | 60cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…22dbbacked No | 67c | 450.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed No | 78c | 440.89$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.99 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 11c | 423.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1b…4a01backed Yes | 5c | 418.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…24d2backed Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +64%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 3c | 383.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe920…6d44backed Yes | 33c | 378.49$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 336.9$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.21 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…a135backed No | 68c | 299.97$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 297.09$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 28c | 292$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.36 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fd…d2b9backed Yes | 4c | 281.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…4a1cbacked No | 75c | 267.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…9f03backed No | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0813…5b41backed No | 70c | 247.07$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a799backed No | 72c | 244$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b9…23abbacked Yes | 28c | 244$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 28c | 229$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1d…95debacked No | 61c | 216.05$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff8b…9d7ebacked Yes | 14c | 214.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 19c | 210$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d00…6586backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca1…9496backed Yes | 28c | 199.66$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 25c | 197.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 5c | 194.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7034…feb1backed Yes | 32c | 192.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 187.86$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb495…e4e0backed Yes | 24c | 186$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fe…617fbacked No | 76c | 186$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 15c | 184.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0513…3148backed Yes | 24c | 180$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c0…3be5backed No | 76c | 180$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 60c | 179.96$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 28c | 176.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…6bccbacked No | 76c | 174$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 29c | 170$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91cf…c386backed No | 71c | 170$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…5784backed Yes | 29c | 169.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1e…42fbbacked Yes | 11c | 165$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad9…6044backed Yes | 17c | 165$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…6dcdbacked Yes | 13c | 165$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 27c | 163$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed No | 76c | 158.65$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 156.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…c4e0backed Yes | 13c | 151.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5313…9309backed No | 69c | 150.21$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 34c | 149.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8a54…89a5backed No | 73c | 148.3$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 68c | 141.61$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 66c | 141.17$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 70c | 140.28$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…cb12backed Yes | 26c | 131.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked No | 76c | 130.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…58fbbacked Yes | 31c | 128.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 59c | 127.01$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fe…3af7backed Yes | 13c | 126.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc068…e07ebacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…3a3bbacked Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684d…64e3backed Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d76…b50ebacked Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7a…7839backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…ee8ebacked Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd35…2bb6backed Yes | 42c | 119.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…2440backed Yes | 22c | 115.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed No | 51c | 111.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdff…d46dbacked No | 57c | 107.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed5…bb6abacked Yes | 37c | 106.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…20a3backed Yes | 32c | 105.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…a085backed No | 76c | 105$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e2…1026backed No | 50c | 103.92$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd1…870ebacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…d809backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?this page
- Will Israel or the US target Tehran?No won
- Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.