Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel or the US target Tehran?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70faa2973143a515446a36a95f9d34efa9bc9bbf39442e21a177658657ebba08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 2c | 6,882$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.85 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 18c | 4,775$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.27 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20fc…e4e6backed Yes | 10c | 4,594$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.5 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +76%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…ec98backed Yes | 13c | 4,320$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 62c | 4,237$2,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,612.97 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 13c | 3,825$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.7 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4967…dd78backed Yes | 26c | 3,778$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…bbf6backed No | 74c | 3,778$2,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c3…00c8backed Yes | 9c | 3,374$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.17 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 19c | 3,111$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.49 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e34…c876backed Yes | 9c | 2,898$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.19 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 4c | 2,893$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.61 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 15c | 2,815$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.74 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5a…1d35backed Yes | 33c | 2,135$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.87 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a1…fc5abacked Yes | 24c | 2,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d8…ce69backed No | 76c | 2,000$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,800$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd524…2accbacked No | 73c | 1,587$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.71 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed Yes | 13c | 1,421$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.76 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 45c | 1,319$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.17 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3b…6b17backed Yes | 9c | 1,200$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 45c | 965.55$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.6 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked No | 65c | 954$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.59 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 37c | 942.01$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.44 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x095d…52cfbacked No | 75c | 930.97$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.42 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -10.4wins | -0.36per pick | 60cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 19c | 857.46$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.72 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 79c | 805$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.05 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 21c | 746.81$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.4 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…dc27backed Yes | 15c | 734$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebea…eabcbacked Yes | 15c | 683.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 14c | 650$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c4…e583backed Yes | 22c | 603.83$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 36c | 600$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.7 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf207…17acbacked No | 67c | 593.01$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.45 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 57c | 501.29$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 21c | 480.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 41c | 431.47$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.88 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 26c | 430$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.93 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…23c9backed Yes | 24c | 423.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 61c | 418.67$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.31 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed No | 65c | 415.08$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.62 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…bd62backed Yes | 25c | 406.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 401.73$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.27 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed No | 40c | 399.85$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.26 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 46c | 389.66$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.82 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…58fbbacked Yes | 54c | 368.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 8c | 351.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked Yes | 59c | 347.39$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.14 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 33c | 341.96$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.29 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5e…7952backed No | 53c | 340.26$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.26 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 24c | 326.8$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…0018backed No | 61c | 317.46$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Yes | 62c | 312.76$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.56 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…4ce9backed Yes | 20c | 312.72$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.11 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb5…4438backed Yes | 10c | 307.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506d…6654backed Yes | 58c | 299.99$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b99…1dd2backed Yes | 18c | 283.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 35c | 252.93$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.07 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3874…62d1backed Yes | 50c | 249.8$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ee…da09backed Yes | 42c | 239.88$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.68 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c46…0a10backed Yes | 62c | 225.97$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.73 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xceb4…fe12backed Yes | 47c | 213.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…49e2backed No | 53c | 203$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…144fbacked Yes | 47c | 203$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b05…6180backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c9…cef3backed Yes | 28c | 199.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…9b01backed Yes | 10c | 173$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…a426backed Yes | 23c | 172.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…7b32backed Yes | 58c | 172.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3e…9914backed Yes | 60c | 166.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…2440backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 25c | 146.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1311…efc8backed Yes | 70c | 143.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fe…22ebbacked Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…d383backed No | 59c | 139.98$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 65c | 139.63$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 13c | 139.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 18c | 132.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 43c | 130.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.73 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…8397backed Yes | 19c | 129.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 75c | 128$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…6727backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 52c | 124.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 70c | 124.22$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 56c | 122.93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf532…c50cbacked Yes | 16c | 121.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x062c…c822backed No | 27c | 120.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked No | 45c | 119.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1f…1cdabacked Yes | 63c | 116.73$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…c4e0backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 37c | 110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 135 | 43.7%59 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed Yes | 25c | 109$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…5297backed Yes | 49c | 105.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0abd…695abacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel or the US target Tehran?this page
- Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?No won
- Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.