Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf05643dbc763608d34bc226b096250bf1a84138c8cd0dcaaaf17e997255f38e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4967…dd78backed Yes | 14c | 2,788$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 8c | 2,667$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.48 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x790f…8ca5backed Yes | 14c | 1,741$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bb…2667backed Yes | 11c | 1,330$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.37 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,302$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.99 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 25c | 1,140$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 27c | 841$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.66 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 7c | 765$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5a…1d35backed Yes | 11c | 763.62$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 11c | 658.12$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 7c | 580$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 77c | 414.77$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.86 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a4…b4a5backed No | 74c | 404.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72de…a5edbacked Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…1404backed No | 76c | 264.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.06 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 248.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 21c | 240.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…86e4backed Yes | 19c | 233.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 7c | 222$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04e8…a0bfbacked Yes | 6c | 221.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…2b6dbacked Yes | 9c | 221.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…ebc3backed Yes | 10c | 203.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae9a…7ceabacked Yes | 14c | 201.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…d8b8backed No | 75c | 198.41$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…58fbbacked Yes | 24c | 168.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 158.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a1…fc5abacked Yes | 14c | 158$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 76c | 157.3$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…6727backed Yes | 9c | 144.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 72c | 138.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…8f91backed No | 80c | 134.4$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 19c | 122.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…8397backed Yes | 43c | 117.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfac5…568bbacked Yes | 25c | 116$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed No | 79c | 108.48$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 80c | 107.48$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 22c | 103.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…d2abbacked Yes | 29c | 102.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 131 | 38.2%50 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x94fc…e11fbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa64…62dbbacked No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabd1…870ebacked No | 74c | 99.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked No | 80c | 99.26$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 15c | 92.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…3803backed Yes | 22c | 90.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3425…428ebacked Yes | 28c | 89.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…2f77backed No | 79c | 85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 70c | 83.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b55…01c6backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 64c | 81.76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb706…b12bbacked No | 79c | 74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 76c | 73.89$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 20c | 71.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5601…ca0fbacked Yes | 30c | 66.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd7…d41bbacked Yes | 22c | 66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0853…f4febacked Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa979…1b33backed Yes | 19c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +55%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3836…c1c3backed Yes | 21c | 61.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…aef7backed No | 76c | 61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…97cbbacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x271b…ba02backed No | 79c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc4…f740backed Yes | 23c | 59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…8449backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce5…bfb7backed No | 75c | 57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 18c | 55.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…3c60backed No | 76c | 53.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 50.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…20a3backed Yes | 26c | 50.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a8…4b54backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf5…b17fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked Yes | 22c | 47.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0851…e119backed Yes | 27c | 45.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fef…cdbebacked Yes | 22c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6201…75cdbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd423…c967backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…1624backed Yes | 28c | 39.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3b…e6b5backed No | 75c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…fa0abacked No | 77c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x512f…f981backed No | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb932…5ab6backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 56c | 33.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 73c | 28.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9326…dd5abacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e3…bf74backed No | 80c | 25.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x857d…f02fbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c58…13b9backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…6da5backed No | 80c | 24.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe801…e929backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb42…47abbacked No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x029c…5137backed No | 79c | 20.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…cad0backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d2…f5e7backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…8cd3backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?this page
- Will Israel or the US target Tehran?No won
- Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.