TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$490,100
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$410,724

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $490,100 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 366 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes7c30,772$2,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,234.7842818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes5c18,465$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.4921521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes1c15,087$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.319613.5%13 W · 83 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23eb…48d8backed Yes2c13,096$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.8714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-56.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf15…2aa9backed Yes3c10,200$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.4220%0 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfe4…13eebacked Yes3c7,944$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.15238.7%2 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb8…e48fbacked Yes31c7,319$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2505215.4%8 W · 44 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes8c7,140$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.376813.2%9 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x425f…5493backed Yes11c7,019$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No78c6,666$5,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,452.938150.6%41 W · 40 L+12.7wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+33.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe838…92fbbacked Yes15c5,274$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.381827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fc3…12afbacked Yes19c5,181$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.091526.7%4 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d15…c454backed No80c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0004465.9%29 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes4c4,987$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.341488.1%12 W · 136 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+238.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes5c4,874$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.993717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b79…47e6backed Yes9c4,534$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.443246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c4,406$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.347135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes0c4,336$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.614769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes7c4,270$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.19400%0 W · 40 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes7c4,205$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.753119.4%6 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafdf…a1d5backed Yes12c4,134$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.541338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x362c…39dbbacked Yes35c3,609$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250160%0 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes11c3,386$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.778515.3%13 W · 72 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d7e…3248backed Yes3c3,356$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.06238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-49.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes3c3,339$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.21245.6%7 W · 117 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c3,313$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.193588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe166…2d8fbacked No77c3,251$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.341553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+24.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb273…aa63backed Yes3c3,099$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.987423%17 W · 57 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf532…c50cbacked Yes12c3,056$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.63414.7%5 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5efe…7c87backed Yes11c2,660$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002035%7 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+38.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No77c2,600$2,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5984540%18 W · 27 L-10.5wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-38.7%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6dae…e45abacked Yes17c2,498$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.512941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6bf…c624backed Yes4c2,458$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No74c2,390$1,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.4321259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9f7c…cb5fbacked No79c2,300$1,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.512352.2%12 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.17per pick35cpaid-14.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes10c2,291$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.1136626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda71…9351backed Yes18c2,222$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.54540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+654.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52d9…c0a4backed Yes2c2,218$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.264216.7%7 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc64b…516dbacked Yes2c2,036$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.54130%0 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83e0…53e6backed Yes24c2,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4808230.5%25 W · 57 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+73.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes13c2,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick9cpaid+10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x124b…8a69backed Yes3c1,861$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652412.5%3 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43dd…d4b0backed Yes20c1,828$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-80.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d6c…b3febacked Yes22c1,828$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x81ab…ba97backed Yes20c1,801$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.777330.1%22 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6fe…9fa9backed Yes2c1,762$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb45…952dbacked Yes12c1,700$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2ba…e8ccbacked Yes25c1,696$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.33537.5%4 W · 49 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-61.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No70c1,654$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.2229254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b26…b3f6backed Yes10c1,576$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.364134.1%14 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-30.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked No75c1,550$1,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.0616650%83 W · 83 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed Yes9c1,530$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1443850%19 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+67%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53a0…1907backed Yes2c1,511$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-57.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5464…af99backed Yes3c1,499$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.986533.8%22 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38d6…d072backed Yes9c1,478$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.271145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc44a…8da6backed Yes16c1,415$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.457123.9%17 W · 54 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadd1…a4a3backed Yes15c1,415$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2105630.4%17 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c1,394$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.981,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7449…be3cbacked Yes4c1,391$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ca7…8195backed Yes8c1,312$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.736013.3%8 W · 52 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes1c1,279$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.624119.5%8 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdec7…f536backed No79c1,259$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.33438.2%13 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes19c1,240$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.4835819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes20c1,222$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.444224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked No71c1,156$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.3511357.5%65 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes12c1,064$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.8928427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes32c1,020$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.13633.3%12 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-43.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf84c…e106backed Yes10c1,001$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003116.1%5 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-52.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9038247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7124…70c1backed Yes19c1,000$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1855736.8%21 W · 36 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-31.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe6c4…4c8bbacked Yes1c1,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149028.9%26 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3329…2f5cbacked Yes10c990.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100677.5%5 W · 62 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c985.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.284625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes3c880.04$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.681703.5%6 W · 164 L+0.6wins0.00per pick3cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4206…6d13backed Yes11c875.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-84.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes4c859.13$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.511657.3%12 W · 153 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2800…9840backed Yes3c852.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.931811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed No65c800$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28010354.4%56 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x252f…8911backed Yes13c793.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+109.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x328e…4475backed Yes14c785.71$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105147.1%24 W · 27 L+9.2wins+0.18per pick29cpaid+55.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9f5e…da72backed Yes13c764.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007123.9%17 W · 54 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked No79c738.09$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.229736.1%35 W · 62 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x165e…f5aabacked No74c734$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.56558.5%38 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe17d…1c73backed Yes1c713.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2c…bc2fbacked Yes4c712.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29ea…701ebacked Yes9c703.88$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66392.6%1 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick9cpaid-92.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff05…0a63backed Yes2c697.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8410428.8%30 W · 74 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7e5…f6fcbacked Yes5c671.21$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.277116.9%12 W · 59 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25d5…3371backed Yes11c647.44$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.08771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick38cpaid+126.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4baf…5fdfbacked No80c642.2$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.446100%6 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+50.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b01…95a9backed Yes2c637.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes2c632.55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.33486.3%3 W · 45 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+132.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked No80c630$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1261844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22c3…289cbacked No80c625$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1252842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No73c623.29$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.295756.1%32 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f6…739abacked Yes16c621.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-76.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No67c618.22$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.7431649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9155…de7cbacked Yes18c603.77$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.687024.3%17 W · 53 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-45.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0dc5…a303backed Yes10c600$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010227.5%28 W · 74 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…9511backed Yes4c600$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-40.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.