Middle East · resolved market
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x680c54c81634efefe3758d4baec2544fe368a4d6cefe4821774a6e18b4d73ec8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $490,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $410,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $490,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 366 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 7c | 30,772$2,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,234.78 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 5c | 18,465$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.49 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 1c | 15,087$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.31 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23eb…48d8backed Yes | 2c | 13,096$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf15…2aa9backed Yes | 3c | 10,200$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.4 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…13eebacked Yes | 3c | 7,944$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.15 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb8…e48fbacked Yes | 31c | 7,319$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 8c | 7,140$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.37 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…5493backed Yes | 11c | 7,019$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 78c | 6,666$5,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,452.93 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe838…92fbbacked Yes | 15c | 5,274$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.38 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked Yes | 19c | 5,181$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.09 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed No | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 4c | 4,987$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.34 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 4,874$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.99 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…47e6backed Yes | 9c | 4,534$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.44 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 4,406$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.34 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,336$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 7c | 4,270$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.19 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 7c | 4,205$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.75 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafdf…a1d5backed Yes | 12c | 4,134$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.54 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…39dbbacked Yes | 35c | 3,609$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 11c | 3,386$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.77 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…3248backed Yes | 3c | 3,356$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.06 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,339$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,313$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…2d8fbacked No | 77c | 3,251$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.34 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 3c | 3,099$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.98 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf532…c50cbacked Yes | 12c | 3,056$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.6 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5efe…7c87backed Yes | 11c | 2,660$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 77c | 2,600$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -10.5wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6dae…e45abacked Yes | 17c | 2,498$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.51 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bf…c624backed Yes | 4c | 2,458$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 74c | 2,390$1,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.43 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…cb5fbacked No | 79c | 2,300$1,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.51 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 10c | 2,291$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.11 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda71…9351backed Yes | 18c | 2,222$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +654.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed Yes | 2c | 2,218$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc64b…516dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,036$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e0…53e6backed Yes | 24c | 2,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…8a69backed Yes | 3c | 1,861$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43dd…d4b0backed Yes | 20c | 1,828$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6c…b3febacked Yes | 22c | 1,828$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 20c | 1,801$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.77 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…9fa9backed Yes | 2c | 1,762$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb45…952dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,700$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…e8ccbacked Yes | 25c | 1,696$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.33 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 70c | 1,654$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.22 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…b3f6backed Yes | 10c | 1,576$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.36 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked No | 75c | 1,550$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.06 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 9c | 1,530$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +67%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 2c | 1,511$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed Yes | 3c | 1,499$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 9c | 1,478$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 16c | 1,415$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.45 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…a4a3backed Yes | 15c | 1,415$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,394$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7449…be3cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,391$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Yes | 8c | 1,312$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.73 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes | 1c | 1,279$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec7…f536backed No | 79c | 1,259$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.3 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,240$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.48 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 20c | 1,222$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.4 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 71c | 1,156$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.35 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 12c | 1,064$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.89 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes | 32c | 1,020$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.1 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf84c…e106backed Yes | 10c | 1,001$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…4c8bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…2f5cbacked Yes | 10c | 990.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 985.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 3c | 880.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4206…6d13backed Yes | 11c | 875.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 4c | 859.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…9840backed Yes | 3c | 852.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 65c | 800$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…8911backed Yes | 13c | 793.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…4475backed Yes | 14c | 785.71$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +9.2wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5e…da72backed Yes | 13c | 764.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked No | 79c | 738.09$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.22 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 74c | 734$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe17d…1c73backed Yes | 1c | 713.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2c…bc2fbacked Yes | 4c | 712.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ea…701ebacked Yes | 9c | 703.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 2c | 697.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked Yes | 5c | 671.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d5…3371backed Yes | 11c | 647.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 38cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4baf…5fdfbacked No | 80c | 642.2$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.44 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 2c | 637.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 2c | 632.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 80c | 630$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c3…289cbacked No | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 73c | 623.29$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.29 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…739abacked Yes | 16c | 621.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 67c | 618.22$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.74 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9155…de7cbacked Yes | 18c | 603.77$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.68 | 70 | 24.3%17 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed Yes | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…9511backed Yes | 4c | 600$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?this page
- Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Canada strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will France strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Oman strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will UK strike Iran by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.