TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZof TheMongolz, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$530,115
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$564,177

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $530,115 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 277 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3833…33d1backed MOUZ70c52,272$36,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,704.1921548.4%104 W · 111 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8375…ba1dbacked MOUZ74c50,267$37,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,997.56848.5%33 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1d99…5591backed TheMongolz31c42,036$12,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,868.751442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed TheMongolz27c23,512$6,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,459.41,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked TheMongolz25c23,461$5,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,926.462,22347.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L-5.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked TheMongolz15c23,049$3,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,502.153,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed TheMongolz30c22,002$6,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,600.624846.8%116 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked TheMongolz27c17,825$4,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,855.53,25950.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L+98.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked TheMongolz9c17,720$1,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,531.5422927.5%63 W · 166 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fd9…3373backed MOUZ70c17,316$12,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,145.286752.2%35 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked TheMongolz17c17,039$2,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,960.913,23651.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L+88.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed TheMongolz27c15,197$4,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,154.7282143%353 W · 468 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed TheMongolz25c14,937$3,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,692.794,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked MOUZ71c14,073$9,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,081.2515050.7%76 W · 74 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked TheMongolz32c13,584$4,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,366.160540%242 W · 363 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb726…0664backed MOUZ61c13,508$8,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,252.6912649.2%62 W · 64 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked MOUZ65c12,222$7,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,223.4621251.4%109 W · 103 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed MOUZ70c11,000$7,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,30035254%190 W · 162 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed TheMongolz29c10,640$3,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,113.7328453.5%152 W · 132 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb29…e532backed TheMongolz29c10,221$2,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,986.42245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked MOUZ66c9,859$6,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,354.0783652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd56b…342dbacked TheMongolz44c9,097$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00011443%49 W · 65 L-12.0wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-24.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb7e2…826cbacked TheMongolz23c8,650$1,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,962.898342.2%35 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed TheMongolz30c7,855$2,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,356.56152.5%32 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed TheMongolz28c7,364$2,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,061.8236845.1%166 W · 202 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b91…06c4backed TheMongolz36c6,915$2,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,490.62137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.24per pick32cpaid-85.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked TheMongolz20c5,305$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.11,06049%519 W · 541 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed TheMongolz23c4,534$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.92,09241.6%871 W · 1,221 L-50.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed TheMongolz30c4,440$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3326634.8%23 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked TheMongolz29c4,331$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.961,61945.5%737 W · 882 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e9…fcc9backed MOUZ71c4,198$2,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,217.485954.2%32 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40a2…19c9backed TheMongolz13c4,103$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.59340.9%38 W · 55 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked MOUZ69c4,021$2,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,246.3645357.2%259 W · 194 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-5.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed MOUZ67c3,896$2,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.6933452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed TheMongolz13c3,500$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4611,28322%282 W · 1,001 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed TheMongolz29c3,327$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.2385946.1%396 W · 463 L-1.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed TheMongolz31c3,226$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004942.9%21 W · 28 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x82f9…6910backed MOUZ79c3,154$2,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf3…eb8ebacked TheMongolz31c3,060$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.465234.6%18 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed TheMongolz22c2,860$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.386,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa661…eb28backed MOUZ72c2,773$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.6112742.5%54 W · 73 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0e3…dd00backed TheMongolz32c2,738$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.172236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked TheMongolz27c2,590$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.9927133.2%90 W · 181 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked TheMongolz31c2,500$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78040950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked MOUZ71c2,494$1,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.2612153.7%65 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25ac…3e47backed MOUZ73c2,466$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.758564.7%55 W · 30 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed TheMongolz35c2,456$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.1111240.2%45 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed TheMongolz23c2,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46057422.5%129 W · 445 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked TheMongolz31c2,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62021924.2%53 W · 166 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafa2…e45cbacked TheMongolz16c1,786$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.574647.8%22 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked TheMongolz31c1,687$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.27,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked MOUZ71c1,658$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.962433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-42%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2a71…e454backed TheMongolz31c1,613$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50024944.6%111 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed TheMongolz34c1,500$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5056829.4%20 W · 48 L-8.2wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-26.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed TheMongolz17c1,500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25558651%299 W · 287 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed MOUZ70c1,457$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.0522952%119 W · 110 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked TheMongolz15c1,439$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21847347.1%223 W · 250 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8afe…aec0backed MOUZ70c1,429$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.579058.9%53 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked MOUZ70c1,429$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.5765950.4%332 W · 327 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed MOUZ69c1,416$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.327950.2%140 W · 139 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66b2…0fdfbacked TheMongolz13c1,394$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.272657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0785…81c3backed MOUZ66c1,300$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44215970.4%112 W · 47 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1d82…72febacked MOUZ65c1,287$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.851485.7%12 W · 2 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick61cpaid+56.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed TheMongolz21c1,281$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.285,87637.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L+71.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4da1…e6dfbacked TheMongolz34c1,200$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.310446.2%48 W · 56 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x480e…71e9backed MOUZ68c1,186$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.162657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked TheMongolz45c1,132$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.2835850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed TheMongolz31c1,091$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.9764652.8%341 W · 305 L+26.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed TheMongolz29c999.99$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29041716.5%69 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22ae…af00backed MOUZ54c954.45$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.0526451.5%136 W · 128 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8737…72babacked TheMongolz29c947.22$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.521838.9%7 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8da…a6e6backed MOUZ62c900$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3422458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+18.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f354backed TheMongolz38c900$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed TheMongolz23c834.03$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19024346.9%114 W · 129 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb917…02c6backed MOUZ76c826.28$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.4911343.4%49 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7767…4fb2backed MOUZ69c816.25$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.0412259.8%73 W · 49 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d59…811bbacked TheMongolz19c812.48$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.246642.4%28 W · 38 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+35.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7811…6e14backed MOUZ58c809.99$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.216742.5%71 W · 96 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd5f…8a9bbacked MOUZ50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40013540.7%55 W · 80 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3423…3adebacked TheMongolz25c788$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed TheMongolz31c740$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.983643.5%364 W · 472 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc25…4fa8backed MOUZ71c716.86$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.8913453%71 W · 63 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b22…ba7bbacked TheMongolz33c699.93$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.9810345.6%47 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked TheMongolz13c668.8$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5670423.9%168 W · 536 L+2.7wins0.00per pick23cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d91…bb2abacked MOUZ76c657.89$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.893066.7%20 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ee1…f616backed MOUZ77c654.97$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.9913332.3%43 W · 90 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99a2…feedbacked TheMongolz21c643.35$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.112232%39 W · 83 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4925…a69abacked TheMongolz12c625$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510331.1%32 W · 71 L-0.3wins0.00per pick31cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed TheMongolz24c606.55$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.6431444.9%141 W · 173 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed MOUZ68c588.24$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.2432653.1%173 W · 153 L-1.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58be…e6d7backed TheMongolz34c575.9$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.813754.1%20 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4013…406bbacked MOUZ70c570$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17115063.3%95 W · 55 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37f8…b5e5backed MOUZ71c568.56$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.6844743.8%196 W · 251 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2949…4cc8backed MOUZ78c539.41$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.682123.8%5 W · 16 L-5.2wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-56.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked TheMongolz52c537.27$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27918250%91 W · 91 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ73c521.76$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.614,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x533e…47f4backed TheMongolz19c521.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001275%9 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+30.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked TheMongolz45c511.11$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2309548.4%46 W · 49 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed TheMongolz28c502.83$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.121455.6%119 W · 95 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+20.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa45d…b413backed MOUZ70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1505261.5%32 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.