TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before December?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,002,359
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$905,106

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,002,359 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 351 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9d84…1344backed Yes24c42,686$10,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,433.5326423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes2c36,867$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.9536750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4d23…8f86backed Yes21c33,061$6,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,883.022015%3 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-63.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes3c28,755$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.85439.3%4 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd909…fd75backed Yes39c21,079$8,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,310.912050%10 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x427c…17b7backed Yes0c20,500$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-52.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes5c20,210$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95016743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b47…d45bbacked Yes2c18,136$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…4c84backed Yes3c16,981$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.35633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-39.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes1c14,000$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick6cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e28…dc83backed Yes5c13,189$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.522429.2%7 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3eb6…27f1backed Yes12c12,717$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,49920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5428…74fdbacked Yes1c10,000$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb052…ff06backed Yes8c9,620$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7865315.1%8 W · 45 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7d1…6da5backed Yes1c9,571$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f09…b06ebacked Yes2c9,279$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.461435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e49…3dcabacked Yes6c9,097$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+31.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f6e…5727backed No67c8,891$5,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,975.48955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x038a…d934backed Yes27c8,711$2,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,328.11757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x402a…d1d1backed Yes5c8,527$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.22138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+43.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes2c8,397$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.6223525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…1995backed Yes11c8,109$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.03966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+92.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22d5…c343backed Yes1c7,645$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3c5…a0f3backed Yes5c7,566$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.867926.6%21 W · 58 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf336…c654backed Yes3c7,532$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes1c6,935$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2315234.2%52 W · 100 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbffe…6492backed No65c6,821$4,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,365.542157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed No63c6,751$4,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,498.622560%15 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x13f1…88adbacked Yes1c6,425$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x054b…8477backed Yes33c6,420$2,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,087.873324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf54e…44f9backed Yes2c5,952$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes4c5,760$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.79229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-78.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b14…b84bbacked Yes3c5,605$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.25520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5d9…4e86backed Yes1c5,499$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes32c5,412$1,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,722.682015%3 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-63.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes3c5,387$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.193743.2%16 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfcc3…caa5backed Yes1c5,374$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.87520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-70.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes4c4,781$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.642738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7186…9bc6backed Yes2c4,427$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes6c4,154$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.6812744.9%57 W · 70 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+91.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x54a7…9c79backed Yes2c4,031$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.08955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes1c3,945$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5828427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b90…43cebacked Yes3c3,580$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.91729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+74%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x65bb…b05bbacked Yes1c3,559$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e25…814abacked Yes3c3,430$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.8980%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c3,422$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5177636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa70…8f17backed No71c3,381$2,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.373855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa687…015abacked Yes1c3,342$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes3c3,340$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.61270%0 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe371…d32ebacked Yes46c3,264$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5003716.2%6 W · 31 L-5.6wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-66.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x100b…4476backed Yes4c3,159$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-54.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes7c3,158$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.454628.3%13 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43ed…5535backed Yes5c3,069$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.073243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes3c2,893$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.72119%4 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-61%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed No74c2,840$2,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.173633.3%12 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5c1…0101backed Yes45c2,686$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,210.421233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-23.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0384…df9ebacked Yes3c2,586$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+84.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbea…19f4backed Yes2c2,557$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.764528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-20.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40bb…72bebacked No59c2,536$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.12176.2%16 W · 5 L+4.0wins+0.19per pick57cpaid+29.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4f69…af04backed Yes3c2,389$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed No61c2,356$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918.983458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes1c2,350$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.239831.6%31 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No66c2,317$1,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.428844.3%39 W · 49 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+42.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbbbc…e74ebacked Yes11c2,277$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.421526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x70f8…7fb5backed No67c2,259$1,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.172263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfeca…b710backed Yes4c2,232$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0db…56d5backed Yes4c2,217$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.913161.3%19 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa51b…26b1backed Yes4c2,211$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.667147.9%34 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x831e…8db9backed Yes37c2,189$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8002737%10 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+41%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes6c2,100$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.877051.4%36 W · 34 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc00…8d5fbacked Yes4c2,075$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb04c…1733backed Yes2c2,012$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.15425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dbb…dbdfbacked Yes2c2,001$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.03933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+23.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1880…f087backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd22c…5525backed No67c2,000$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.981050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64cf…8a8abacked No67c1,821$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.891450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…a62cbacked Yes2c1,700$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-38.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7c5…4052backed Yes1c1,692$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.161136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked No60c1,674$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.773672.2%26 W · 10 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd365…13e2backed Yes1c1,619$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes3c1,615$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.531838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf7…7f88backed No58c1,537$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.291442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb511…11e4backed Yes4c1,522$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.08540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d89…1268backed Yes3c1,519$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6940%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes35c1,499$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.6742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ead…8b4cbacked No67c1,493$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.54977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick60cpaid+37.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x768f…d4b6backed No77c1,479$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.91866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f51…0fcabacked Yes2c1,476$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95e6…1d2bbacked No72c1,416$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.452321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-54.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2060…bfacbacked Yes2c1,394$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d55…5ea3backed Yes19c1,375$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2631533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f99…f223backed Yes2c1,362$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4750%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No66c1,359$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.212733.3%9 W · 18 L-7.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-45.2%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x74da…1ba5backed No67c1,357$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.082100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b22…24a9backed No74c1,353$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.42250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x040e…8edfbacked No78c1,263$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.25450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b66…ab63backed Yes2c1,263$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes34c1,262$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.749815.3%15 W · 83 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd053…f7c0backed Yes35c1,230$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.022927.6%8 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0013…4e39backed Yes1c1,222$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.