Champions League · resolved market
Will Benfica beat Red Star Belgrade?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfcf8cd9f6766268acac32bf4eda98ada98fc232906d1445cd445d819668bfce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 51c | 5,195$2,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,545.54 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 154 | 42.9%66 W · 88 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 18c | 3,358$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.19 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 49c | 1,833$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.12 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe484…7c7abacked No | 3c | 1,594$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 7c | 1,554$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.47 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed No | 7c | 1,522$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.57 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 77c | 1,298$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.46 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7724…7e7abacked Yes | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c8…9be5backed Yes | 79c | 888.03$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 48c | 566.9$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.97 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 48c | 495.8$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.98 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed No | 49c | 454.88$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.89 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff25…1738backed Yes | 59c | 391$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.31 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde70…0039backed No | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…0569backed Yes | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 51c | 372.55$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.55 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 48c | 354.02$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.14 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1823…b0fcbacked Yes | 51c | 344.06$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x479c…bcbcbacked No | 49c | 295.95$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.02 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 47c | 269.69$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.75 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ff…b701backed Yes | 53c | 188.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.24 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…c9e7backed No | 52c | 144.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2e…745cbacked Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 50c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 49c | 96.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x768e…8f5fbacked Yes | 53c | 95.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a5…67acbacked Yes | 53c | 94.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff9c…58edbacked Yes | 53c | 77.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 48c | 61.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6330…db7abacked Yes | 51c | 61.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebb…8f7fbacked No | 51c | 48.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f13…d602backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007a…7f5ebacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed No | 52c | 38.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 46c | 36.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 173 | 22%38 W · 135 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…642abacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e21…4d75backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…0687backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x472e…85ebbacked Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735c…68c7backed Yes | 51c | 27.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5adb…42dbbacked Yes | 52c | 20.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Benfica beat Red Star Belgrade?this page
- Will Red Star Belgrade beat Benfica?No won
- Will the match between Red Star Belgrade vs. Benfica end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.