Champions League · resolved market
Will Red Star Belgrade beat Benfica?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb78eb980dcda58c60f92419d45c4c900a6a189ea9adc1a16e077c03d1494fe74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff25…1738backed Yes | 1c | 3,333$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed Yes | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 74c | 749.96$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.99 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 24c | 305.32$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.28 | 154 | 42.9%66 W · 88 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b7…9a3cbacked Yes | 25c | 237.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6324…95b9backed Yes | 26c | 192.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed No | 75c | 149.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5697…cddfbacked No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…ea34backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde4f…c941backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…b48abacked Yes | 25c | 58.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…2456backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf98…672abacked Yes | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x984c…888bbacked Yes | 24c | 42.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac3…730ebacked No | 77c | 35.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2431…cabebacked No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf883…1bb2backed No | 76c | 28.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d7…0d61backed No | 77c | 28.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…df0ebacked No | 76c | 26.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f33…3affbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4c…2214backed No | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ac…2c1abacked No | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8054…2d44backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9654…58fbbacked No | 76c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe560…8001backed No | 76c | 17.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b70…792ebacked No | 76c | 17.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Red Star Belgrade beat Benfica?this page
- Will Benfica beat Red Star Belgrade?Yes won
- Will the match between Red Star Belgrade vs. Benfica end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.