Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a28d37ad1ff15175ca810b4ef6a78709d04bbbbef21f1791744f36df2f6ce57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 8c | 5,853$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.84 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 10c | 4,727$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.19 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 2,043$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked Yes | 15c | 1,939$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.86 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…de7ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,560$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 12c | 1,493$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.63 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes | 10c | 1,325$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.47 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…c770backed Yes | 14c | 1,298$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.61 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 7c | 1,258$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.92 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…0df3backed Yes | 9c | 1,201$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.11 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed No | 79c | 1,003$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -82%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a4…9ba4backed Yes | 18c | 999.57$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.84 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 22c | 999.47$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.66 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 9c | 989.68$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.24 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe23…ea54backed Yes | 19c | 900$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 817.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 14c | 765.17$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.66 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 20c | 759$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.87 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 12c | 701.74$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.3 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda2a…2f33backed Yes | 19c | 641.5$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 2c | 627.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca4…3e81backed Yes | 11c | 610.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfb…8445backed Yes | 5c | 606.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6608…4d0cbacked Yes | 15c | 580$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ae…61edbacked Yes | 6c | 566.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 9c | 464.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…933dbacked Yes | 7c | 449.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 441.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 76c | 409.43$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.57 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 9c | 357.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f4…4f8ebacked Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +134.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x642e…217cbacked Yes | 16c | 311.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…82b1backed Yes | 7c | 279.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 246.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc92a…2818backed Yes | 13c | 226.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaeb…957fbacked Yes | 9c | 212$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 24c | 209$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Yes | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 10c | 190$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…0687backed Yes | 10c | 175$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked No | 75c | 165$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x248b…562cbacked Yes | 20c | 152.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…f1c7backed Yes | 17c | 148.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9feb…d61dbacked Yes | 18c | 142$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed Yes | 11c | 139$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 14c | 135$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…d22cbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9c…97a4backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfade…283bbacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…6a4ebacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…dbcbbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.31per pick | 39cpaid | -74%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x253e…bf81backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5437…7e5abacked Yes | 16c | 68.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x072b…11fdbacked Yes | 23c | 65.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 66cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…7e76backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb65…3f3fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f3…1badbacked No | 79c | 25.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb343…3720backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6323…17babacked No | 80c | 14.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.