Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fbfd38766cc418ffd335752fb2c4214cbd53f7940f3eb859e2272dc7d2a5ade
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,244,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,354,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,244,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,043 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe34c…25c2backed No | 29c | 197,967$57,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,079.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed No | 4c | 171,739$7,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,418.04 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 10c | 155,824$15,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,417.37 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 59c | 154,442$90,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63,952.27 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb38…7935backed No | 4c | 132,686$5,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,704.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 66c | 122,634$81,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,390.64 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 4c | 90,650$3,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,742.48 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 4c | 85,825$3,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,511.74 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked No | 0c | 80,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5714…c680backed No | 3c | 57,816$1,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…c8c8backed Yes | 62c | 57,352$35,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,701.28 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +140.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…1472backed No | 3c | 57,101$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e5…9188backed No | 3c | 57,098$1,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,944.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…c185backed No | 3c | 49,456$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.97 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce73…70a9backed No | 5c | 43,156$2,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,168.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 25c | 42,026$10,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,432.74 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac6d…5179backed No | 1c | 39,500$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14d…fcecbacked No | 3c | 37,830$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed No | 3c | 36,771$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe77a…56e3backed No | 8c | 35,479$2,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,843.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df9…bf0dbacked No | 3c | 34,860$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…5761backed No | 6c | 32,756$2,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,117.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…573fbacked No | 2c | 32,092$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 9c | 31,910$2,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,845.49 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb2…dfddbacked No | 4c | 29,089$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…3858backed No | 1c | 28,635$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…8f19backed No | 4c | 27,460$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bf…1800backed No | 18c | 26,366$4,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,781.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfac…ef30backed No | 8c | 25,830$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 61c | 25,347$15,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,981.66 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe97c…2a99backed No | 36c | 24,345$8,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,842.79 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 7c | 23,727$1,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,657.87 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes | 27c | 23,442$6,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,011.73 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1af6…25afbacked No | 5c | 22,507$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 13c | 21,495$2,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,841.03 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 14c | 20,737$2,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,946.01 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 66c | 19,859$13,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,787.54 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 74c | 19,784$14,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,688.89 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 77c | 19,261$14,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,370.57 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d52…50e6backed No | 2c | 17,515$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb256…6f9cbacked No | 24c | 17,230$4,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,056.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c46…a137backed No | 2c | 16,621$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 76c | 16,275$12,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,969.56 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ea31backed No | 6c | 15,730$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece1…2b04backed No | 9c | 15,450$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 24c | 15,196$3,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,621.77 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 17c | 14,838$2,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,523.16 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 60c | 14,384$8,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,599.11 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -9.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5335…0b0fbacked No | 8c | 13,974$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.35 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 67c | 13,727$9,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,552.55 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked No | 11c | 13,719$1,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,545.97 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…0caebacked No | 3c | 13,647$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.6 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3140…21f1backed No | 2c | 12,950$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x880e…00fcbacked Yes | 76c | 12,625$9,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,053.15 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 68c | 12,267$8,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,884.81 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c81…ddcbbacked No | 21c | 12,028$2,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,497.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…ad77backed Yes | 39c | 11,561$4,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,048.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 3c | 11,554$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.14 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 8c | 11,158$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.33 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed No | 4c | 10,806$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x623d…18c2backed No | 10c | 10,743$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x941a…9030backed No | 5c | 10,625$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 57c | 10,299$5,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,416.08 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd931…d2f5backed No | 53c | 10,287$5,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,465.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 25c | 10,067$2,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,528.19 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…254fbacked No | 10c | 10,026$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe785…1180backed No | 3c | 10,016$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…4035backed No | 64c | 9,762$6,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,217.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480f…0905backed No | 8c | 9,578$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0394…3ef9backed No | 2c | 9,550$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.51 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed No | 3c | 9,540$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.2 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90a8…0261backed No | 25c | 9,343$2,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,373.75 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked No | 10c | 9,325$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.21 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 53c | 9,322$4,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,426.51 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb15…36f5backed No | 41c | 8,843$3,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,652.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed No | 67c | 8,818$5,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,887.47 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b68…b668backed No | 75c | 8,811$6,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,631.61 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 36c | 8,783$3,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,660.21 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 52c | 8,750$4,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,587.43 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6a…0b81backed No | 2c | 8,699$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038a…d934backed No | 5c | 8,629$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 14c | 8,611$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.02 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…c1cebacked No | 8c | 8,603$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed No | 7c | 8,603$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.72 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc729…5faabacked No | 8c | 8,400$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986a…4d66backed Yes | 60c | 8,136$4,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,274.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 1c | 8,110$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…4bc0backed No | 67c | 8,095$5,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,397.87 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 41c | 8,084$3,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,762.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6107…6d97backed No | 1c | 8,000$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked No | 17c | 7,842$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332.98 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…a40cbacked No | 68c | 7,704$5,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,226.68 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a02…bc34backed No | 2c | 7,500$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…126ebacked No | 12c | 7,381$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fa…c97dbacked No | 71c | 7,333$5,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,185.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 74c | 7,238$5,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,878.89 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…507bbacked Yes | 41c | 7,109$2,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,215.34 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…caeebacked Yes | 55c | 7,066$3,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,191.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…c9cdbacked No | 72c | 6,925$4,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,986.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…013ebacked No | 17c | 6,836$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.