TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,244,882
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,354,852

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,244,882 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,043 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe34c…25c2backed No29c197,967$57,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,079.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed No4c171,739$7,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,418.041010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No10c155,824$15,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,417.3740433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes59c154,442$90,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,952.2737740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb38…7935backed No4c132,686$5,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,704.56560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+36.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes66c122,634$81,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,390.6435347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No4c90,650$3,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,742.48567.1%4 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-69.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No4c85,825$3,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,511.743622.2%8 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f72…83adbacked No0c80,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-75.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5714…c680backed No3c57,816$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6662544%11 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84c6…c8c8backed Yes62c57,352$35,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,701.281450%7 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+140.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x24d2…1472backed No3c57,101$1,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,632.240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9e5…9188backed No3c57,098$1,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,944.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc822…c185backed No3c49,456$1,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,290.9770%0 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xce73…70a9backed No5c43,156$2,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,168.53650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+66.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes25c42,026$10,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,432.742119%4 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-61%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac6d…5179backed No1c39,500$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa14d…fcecbacked No3c37,830$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed No3c36,771$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe77a…56e3backed No8c35,479$2,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,843.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0df9…bf0dbacked No3c34,860$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8584…5761backed No6c32,756$2,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,117.3130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb29…573fbacked No2c32,092$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.29922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked No9c31,910$2,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,845.494042.5%17 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbcb2…dfddbacked No4c29,089$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4973…3858backed No1c28,635$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32f4…8f19backed No4c27,460$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,201.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1bf…1800backed No18c26,366$4,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,781.54837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-40.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfac…ef30backed No8c25,830$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes61c25,347$15,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,981.6634440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe97c…2a99backed No36c24,345$8,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,842.792360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No7c23,727$1,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,657.874619.6%9 W · 37 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-64%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes27c23,442$6,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,011.736254.8%34 W · 28 L+7.5wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+31.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1af6…25afbacked No5c22,507$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No13c21,495$2,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,841.034940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No14c20,737$2,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,946.016726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes66c19,859$13,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,787.545836.2%21 W · 37 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+73%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No74c19,784$14,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,688.898220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes77c19,261$14,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,370.5713850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d52…50e6backed No2c17,515$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.0940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb256…6f9cbacked No24c17,230$4,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,056.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c46…a137backed No2c16,621$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3192821.4%6 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes76c16,275$12,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,969.5642738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x865c…ea31backed No6c15,730$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.4350%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xece1…2b04backed No9c15,450$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.65616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-56.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No24c15,196$3,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,621.7751138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No17c14,838$2,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,523.1649023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No60c14,384$8,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,599.114922.4%11 W · 38 L-9.6wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-67.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x5335…0b0fbacked No8c13,974$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.352516%4 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-61.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes67c13,727$9,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,552.552552%13 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6478…548fbacked No11c13,719$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,545.971127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-57.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22aa…0caebacked No3c13,647$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.61513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3140…21f1backed No2c12,950$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.0430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x880e…00fcbacked Yes76c12,625$9,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,053.152060%12 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+39.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes68c12,267$8,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,884.816023.3%14 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c81…ddcbbacked No21c12,028$2,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,497.9333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ebc…ad77backed Yes39c11,561$4,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,048.992100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+157.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed No3c11,554$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.143148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No8c11,158$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.3336750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed No4c10,806$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46220617%35 W · 171 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x623d…18c2backed No10c10,743$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x941a…9030backed No5c10,625$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked Yes57c10,299$5,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,416.0817934.6%62 W · 117 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd931…d2f5backed No53c10,287$5,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,465.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No25c10,067$2,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,528.1940828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x06d0…254fbacked No10c10,026$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe785…1180backed No3c10,016$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.51837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7012…4035backed No64c9,762$6,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,217.56757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x480f…0905backed No8c9,578$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0394…3ef9backed No2c9,550$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.511540%6 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed No3c9,540$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.2339.1%3 W · 30 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-47.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x90a8…0261backed No25c9,343$2,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,373.751861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x664d…aa7dbacked No10c9,325$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.216229%18 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes53c9,322$4,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,426.516137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb15…36f5backed No41c8,843$3,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,652.88366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No67c8,818$5,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,887.472458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b68…b668backed No75c8,811$6,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,631.61966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+45.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes36c8,783$3,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,660.217035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No52c8,750$4,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,587.431233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-52.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b6a…0b81backed No2c8,699$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x038a…d934backed No5c8,629$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.61757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No14c8,611$1,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,242.0221259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9a31…c1cebacked No8c8,603$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed No7c8,603$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.72229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc729…5faabacked No8c8,400$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x986a…4d66backed Yes60c8,136$4,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,274.8977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+68.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed No1c8,110$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.32528%7 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x138d…4bc0backed No67c8,095$5,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,397.871369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc979…4a98backed Yes41c8,084$3,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,762.64650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+45.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6107…6d97backed No1c8,000$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.77825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa218…94cdbacked No17c7,842$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,332.983246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda14…a40cbacked No68c7,704$5,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,226.681947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a02…bc34backed No2c7,500$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid-25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6098…126ebacked No12c7,381$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55fa…c97dbacked No71c7,333$5,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,185.29366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed Yes74c7,238$5,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,878.8921160.7%128 W · 83 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5b3…507bbacked Yes41c7,109$2,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,215.343336.4%12 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick28cpaid-4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41e6…caeebacked Yes55c7,066$3,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,191.24540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0078…c9cdbacked No72c6,925$4,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,986.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50e8…013ebacked No17c6,836$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.