Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike 3 countries in January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c8a2755477da991f6fcd81d513f151e711a30d77232d03a1eec4d64e845385b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6499…05d2backed Yes | 12c | 1,641$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.92 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cb…ac3dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,091$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…b842backed Yes | 12c | 1,010$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.2 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes | 16c | 992$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.72 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…a135backed Yes | 13c | 983.97$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0acc…debabacked Yes | 17c | 969$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 13c | 896$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.48 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed Yes | 13c | 818.19$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.36 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73df…ba67backed Yes | 17c | 766$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7086…f376backed Yes | 12c | 693$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b49…70aabacked Yes | 3c | 692.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed Yes | 15c | 663$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…6698backed Yes | 16c | 646$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…24efbacked Yes | 14c | 606$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.84 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0895…4ddebacked Yes | 15c | 589$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.35 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 42cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a8…2a44backed Yes | 11c | 583$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…85b5backed Yes | 4c | 533.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa756…b167backed Yes | 16c | 531$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.33per pick | 41cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8153backed Yes | 13c | 527$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed Yes | 14c | 527$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…96e8backed Yes | 17c | 497$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf738…56bdbacked Yes | 16c | 484$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…83d7backed Yes | 15c | 480$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 479.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe27…9623backed Yes | 17c | 476$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +142.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 8c | 462.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff2d…caf4backed Yes | 17c | 459$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed Yes | 15c | 438$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 436.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…c17abacked Yes | 12c | 434$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed Yes | 16c | 431$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…78f1backed Yes | 3c | 422.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 414.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad04…dce5backed Yes | 16c | 410$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 13c | 396$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 5c | 394.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes | 15c | 388$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2f…37a5backed Yes | 6c | 385.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked Yes | 17c | 361$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 12c | 348$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked Yes | 16c | 332$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25c…6d89backed Yes | 16c | 329$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +44%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 14c | 318$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed Yes | 16c | 313$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked Yes | 12c | 299$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 17c | 292.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…69d2backed Yes | 17c | 282$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e55…59d2backed Yes | 14c | 277$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked Yes | 13c | 274$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…e392backed Yes | 17c | 262$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 6c | 259.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 26c | 228.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa56c…684ebacked Yes | 5c | 221.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 10c | 213.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…d550backed Yes | 24c | 210.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed Yes | 13c | 207$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…e68dbacked Yes | 14c | 204$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 10c | 186.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…86e4backed Yes | 18c | 163.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…70a2backed Yes | 16c | 162$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…0918backed Yes | 17c | 152$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 13c | 151$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 9c | 144.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 15c | 143.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…3241backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…0687backed Yes | 21c | 118.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1baf…3ae9backed Yes | 16c | 106.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 17c | 103$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…db2abacked Yes | 15c | 102$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29e6…b3f2backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…5e44backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…f815backed Yes | 17c | 92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 17c | 89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 16c | 87.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 85.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike 3 countries in January 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike 2 countries in January 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in January 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.