Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike 2 countries in January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb58ce0644b6637c87d62079c0e4296674a7af83ef006ff992ff6a251dd5e8be1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x226e…92abbacked Yes | 24c | 12,665$3,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,039.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab2…f7eebacked No | 76c | 3,880$2,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c3…4c2bbacked No | 76c | 3,760$2,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ac…16edbacked No | 76c | 2,746$2,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b9…d781backed No | 76c | 2,279$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked No | 65c | 1,105$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.53 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…5514backed Yes | 37c | 1,098$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 30c | 1,066$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…9dd3backed Yes | 37c | 1,007$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.59 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…1bb5backed No | 70c | 985$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…0b1ebacked Yes | 38c | 921$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…4018backed Yes | 47c | 918$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…2d93backed No | 63c | 905$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed No | 63c | 848$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked No | 70c | 800$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…1211backed No | 64c | 777$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed No | 63c | 759$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.83 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…c93dbacked Yes | 45c | 713$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.85 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed No | 52c | 704$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.86 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…1a93backed No | 71c | 699$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.71 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed No | 64c | 676$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 55cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09be…76d5backed Yes | 48c | 656$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed Yes | 35c | 646$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.74 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed No | 53c | 643$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.21 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed Yes | 30c | 638$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.4 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…7693backed Yes | 36c | 635$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed No | 58c | 593$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…09a7backed No | 58c | 568$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.97 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked No | 69c | 565$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.15 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked Yes | 38c | 538$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.78 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…8b4abacked Yes | 30c | 536.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.69 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 62c | 531.01$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.78 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…e29abacked Yes | 29c | 523$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…95c6backed No | 53c | 488$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.36 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes | 37c | 484$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.08 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed Yes | 37c | 479$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.23 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…c2dfbacked Yes | 37c | 478$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked No | 63c | 478$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.86 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…c0eebacked Yes | 37c | 477$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.49 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…6232backed No | 63c | 461$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.57 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked No | 63c | 453$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.61 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 77c | 452.13$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 78cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed Yes | 37c | 443$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.91 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…c17abacked Yes | 48c | 434$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 48c | 427$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.96 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…83a4backed No | 71c | 426$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.54 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked Yes | 29c | 426$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ac…6dcbbacked Yes | 21c | 424.03$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed Yes | 37c | 422$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.14 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Yes | 37c | 420$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.4 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee4e…aa5abacked No | 52c | 417.41$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed No | 63c | 404$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 25c | 399.45$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.33 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 48c | 398$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.04 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa71…9767backed No | 62c | 396$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed Yes | 31c | 395$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.45 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…2648backed No | 52c | 372$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.56 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed No | 52c | 372$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.56 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…7154backed Yes | 37c | 371$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.27 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 34c | 367.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c07…956bbacked Yes | 37c | 360$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…b311backed No | 71c | 344$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.87 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes | 37c | 343$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.91 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf049…29fdbacked Yes | 48c | 338$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…c6b5backed No | 62c | 335$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked Yes | 46c | 326$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.96 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked No | 52c | 320$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 16c | 314.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ef…79d6backed No | 63c | 312$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed Yes | 47c | 306$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.82 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked Yes | 29c | 304$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.16 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked No | 52c | 284$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.32 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked No | 71c | 266$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked No | 63c | 266$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.42 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 29c | 266$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa56c…684ebacked Yes | 9c | 264.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 19c | 264.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 63c | 261.49$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.92 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked No | 63c | 253$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.61 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x523d…cc1dbacked No | 63c | 241$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2b…fd2cbacked No | 71c | 241$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd19a…5b88backed No | 52c | 236$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed Yes | 48c | 236$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +126.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…bab6backed Yes | 29c | 229$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 47c | 223$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.81 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…6d90backed No | 52c | 215$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed Yes | 48c | 215$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 10c | 212.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 7c | 207.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…85b5backed Yes | 20c | 204.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 72c | 204$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…49f3backed No | 63c | 202$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.74 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd750…7ce9backed Yes | 6c | 194.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed No | 62c | 190.26$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd81…ae79backed Yes | 38c | 187$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…e98bbacked Yes | 31c | 170$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 74c | 169.56$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…14fbbacked Yes | 34c | 169.35$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +73%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 22c | 166.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 63c | 162.52$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike 2 countries in January 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike 3 countries in January 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in January 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.