Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5d1b0687fa9dc9c60fddb9838b22804a160dc5e2a4da43c004a4757c2154605
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 207 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes | 62c | 1,505$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.13 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked Yes | 54c | 1,474$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.39 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 67c | 1,442$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.86 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes | 44c | 1,340$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7176…6f9fbacked No | 56c | 1,118$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.08 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ca…e688backed No | 59c | 1,050$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8669…7111backed No | 56c | 1,017$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 53cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed No | 55c | 903$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.65 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed Yes | 44c | 898$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.88 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…84e3backed Yes | 44c | 865$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6159…7501backed Yes | 44c | 857$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.36 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 52c | 837$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.76 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed No | 56c | 811$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.16 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 38cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 32c | 804.06$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.25 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes | 68c | 794.93$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.54 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked No | 56c | 789$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.84 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a06…8bf2backed No | 57c | 779$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x638f…66f2backed Yes | 43c | 779$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…69e5backed Yes | 44c | 764$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked No | 48c | 761$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.28 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked No | 56c | 759$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.04 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed No | 55c | 755$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.25 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…a3a2backed No | 56c | 740$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed No | 56c | 676$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.56 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked Yes | 45c | 659$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.45 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed No | 48c | 647.49$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.43 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked Yes | 45c | 612$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 64c | 603.46$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.52 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed No | 56c | 594$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe335…cd12backed Yes | 44c | 594$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.64 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 54c | 592.33$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.99 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 56c | 575.58$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.51 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked No | 55c | 570$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed No | 56c | 568$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.08 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…9bc5backed Yes | 45c | 565$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…652abacked Yes | 41c | 549.99$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed Yes | 44c | 535$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6712…f0c8backed Yes | 67c | 529.62$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.25 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…333fbacked Yes | 44c | 524$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.44 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7e…f0a1backed Yes | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…1837backed No | 56c | 462$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.72 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked Yes | 44c | 444$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.64 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf580…7fadbacked Yes | 45c | 443.28$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.28 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 44c | 412$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.72 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…4441backed Yes | 44c | 410$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 68c | 399.45$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.28 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed No | 56c | 398$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 44c | 398$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.88 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked No | 55c | 390$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.5 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.34per pick | 47cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 41c | 386.08$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.51 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…c0eebacked No | 56c | 383$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.48 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2c…097cbacked Yes | 40c | 380$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed Yes | 45c | 374$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…69d2backed No | 55c | 373$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed No | 55c | 365$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.75 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes | 44c | 349$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.44 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…05d2backed No | 56c | 342$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.52 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 325$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…c286backed Yes | 68c | 312.55$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.53 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…c913backed No | 13c | 310$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 47c | 305.09$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.11 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed Yes | 67c | 300.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.38 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked No | 56c | 299$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.1 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 45c | 295.98$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.89 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked No | 55c | 294$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.7 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed No | 55c | 292$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.6 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -5.1wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 60c | 291$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.3 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed Yes | 45c | 287$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.85 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes | 45c | 283$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 61c | 281.11$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.54 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc49…db74backed Yes | 73c | 277.11$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.76 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked No | 28c | 274.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b92…f4c6backed Yes | 44c | 269$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…952abacked No | 55c | 269$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 37c | 268.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.81 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x941a…90c4backed Yes | 44c | 264.52$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…21bebacked Yes | 78c | 261.27$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked No | 13c | 261$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca4…10e6backed No | 58c | 260$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 20c | 257.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6278…3a93backed No | 56c | 245$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bb…e885backed Yes | 44c | 231$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 7c | 223.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed Yes | 45c | 212$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…4165backed No | 55c | 212$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked Yes | 44c | 211$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.16 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 205.53$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.19 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked No | 56c | 205$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd7…7842backed Yes | 46c | 203.11$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 49c | 202.41$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…87dabacked Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.99 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 199.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.39 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 31c | 198.64$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.56 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked No | 57c | 193.53$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd750…7ce9backed No | 22c | 190.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…61a3backed No | 57c | 185$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…28b8backed Yes | 43c | 185$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 55c | 177$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.35 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…9646backed Yes | 39c | 173.27$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in January 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike 2 countries in January 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike 3 countries in January 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.