Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2153887313b1f84ec3b11fc66488ca4ebdbb5fdb0ce448ef7e3525f9c5c2aebb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21da…a70dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,044$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 891.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 3c | 805.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 8c | 767.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0441…87d5backed Yes | 12c | 698.08$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 3c | 652.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 5c | 629.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e1…e468backed Yes | 4c | 562.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 540.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 6c | 492.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 5c | 418.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 411.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 3c | 399.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 6c | 396.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 11c | 371.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…86e4backed Yes | 13c | 307.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 8c | 258.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…f432backed Yes | 7c | 247.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce79…b803backed Yes | 7c | 222.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…40dbbacked Yes | 8c | 150.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b44…e2cbbacked Yes | 14c | 104.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in January 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike 2 countries in January 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike 3 countries in January 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in January 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.