Middle East · resolved market
No Israel strike Iran on by Sunday Oct 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92e209ea701c0bc35d2d9873ce161e84aa204167bb205fa08ff3afe76b9eb23a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $171,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 28c | 20,754$5,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,984.82 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…abd2backed Yes | 79c | 17,718$14,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,034.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…6e4abacked No | 18c | 10,886$2,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,872.85 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +10.0wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 68c | 10,701$7,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,280.56 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…acb7backed Yes | 67c | 9,932$6,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,692.8 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…66debacked Yes | 1c | 8,474$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed Yes | 71c | 8,385$5,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,953.65 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…046ebacked Yes | 6c | 6,835$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked Yes | 75c | 5,677$4,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,235.07 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a9…48b9backed Yes | 6c | 4,666$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0c…542bbacked Yes | 77c | 4,621$3,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,546.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…aca3backed Yes | 1c | 4,451$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes | 71c | 3,018$2,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,130.52 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed Yes | 6c | 2,998$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.88 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +187.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…6d62backed Yes | 66c | 2,791$1,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,853.94 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed Yes | 64c | 2,580$1,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,643.94 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 69c | 2,425$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,668.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 30c | 2,146$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,503.71 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 26c | 1,992$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,467.51 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed No | 33c | 1,741$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.13 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked Yes | 6c | 1,666$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…2a0cbacked Yes | 69c | 1,652$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…7f1dbacked Yes | 68c | 1,516$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…c1f6backed No | 33c | 1,510$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.34 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.53per pick | 33cpaid | +308.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 66c | 1,352$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.88 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 41c | 1,264$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.58 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95aa…dd99backed Yes | 77c | 1,228$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc35e…1874backed Yes | 69c | 1,214$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d4b6backed Yes | 68c | 1,211$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.8 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 73c | 1,158$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.53 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed No | 65c | 1,086$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.45 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x346c…a160backed No | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc0…021dbacked Yes | 65c | 866.95$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…e74ebacked Yes | 68c | 861.3$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 31c | 838$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.46 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7606…fa1dbacked No | 39c | 800$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 38cpaid | +167.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked No | 40c | 781.64$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.9 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f8…c282backed No | 22c | 761.74$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +181%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca3e…f2fabacked Yes | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…7177backed Yes | 57c | 650$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 5c | 599.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3115…83f4backed No | 25c | 588.75$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 71c | 585.15$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.09 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked No | 23c | 549.84$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.92 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0355…4c8cbacked Yes | 66c | 549.58$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…aa81backed Yes | 63c | 473.31$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.4 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 34c | 450.05$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.62 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes | 67c | 408.61$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.77 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdb…9ceabacked Yes | 61c | 400$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7d…7df9backed Yes | 61c | 400$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e5…3a68backed Yes | 66c | 383.35$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.21 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…b5f3backed Yes | 64c | 381.54$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.77 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65f…24c8backed No | 23c | 340$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed No | 35c | 287.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.03 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb715…a663backed Yes | 71c | 279.46$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.95 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…2339backed Yes | 79c | 277.37$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.52 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…5685backed No | 39c | 271.79$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6f…cbe5backed Yes | 65c | 269.94$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6699…4dfdbacked No | 36c | 244.87$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.59 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…af62backed Yes | 68c | 229.3$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 36c | 225$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…f6dcbacked Yes | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…c6fdbacked Yes | 77c | 217.88$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 70c | 212.12$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.73 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed No | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e99…9206backed No | 35c | 179.12$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 176.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4af…f41bbacked Yes | 59c | 168.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed Yes | 64c | 166.82$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.37 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9156…5932backed Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…1e9cbacked No | 37c | 155.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a2…dcffbacked No | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +285.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…dcb8backed Yes | 70c | 145$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40bb…72bebacked No | 35c | 141.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 32c | 137.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.67 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7edc…29cbbacked Yes | 66c | 136.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed No | 30c | 131.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.97 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…7098backed No | 39c | 128.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…6fbabacked Yes | 66c | 113.52$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 75c | 111.78$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.66 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75a5…a5bfbacked Yes | 66c | 109.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.49 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f56…ccd7backed Yes | 68c | 109.41$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…8c0dbacked Yes | 65c | 106.51$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked No | 32c | 101.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.59 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e73…a236backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xada8…a347backed No | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…f23cbacked Yes | 66c | 90.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -70%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5a…f5a8backed Yes | 66c | 77.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…75acbacked Yes | 79c | 76.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…5863backed No | 15c | 76.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…353bbacked Yes | 68c | 75.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8f…aceebacked Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2e…cc92backed Yes | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked No | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dee…5e21backed Yes | 69c | 73.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…8f57backed Yes | 67c | 73.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- No Israel strike Iran on by Sunday Oct 27?this page
- Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Monday or earlier?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oct 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday Oct 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Thursday Oct 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Tuesday Oct 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Wednesday Oct 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.