Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c0d3b759bee203b521c9c2e2c26cd4afb608d988a3cc585101edbf69c30b9a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $227,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $253,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $227,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x59cf…4275backed Yes | 17c | 17,338$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,337.86 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 41cpaid | +126%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…6e4abacked Yes | 9c | 8,607$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,847.04 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +10.0wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x210f…9d6abacked Yes | 7c | 7,880$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,315.44 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…4a91backed Yes | 79c | 6,214$4,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…c1f6backed Yes | 12c | 5,444$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,785.93 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.53per pick | 33cpaid | +308.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 79c | 4,780$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,799.55 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ec…29cdbacked Yes | 14c | 4,717$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,042.98 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf459…a5c8backed Yes | 14c | 4,678$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,027.7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 23cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 4,187$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,794.65 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 11c | 3,913$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,498.55 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 8c | 3,600$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,326.35 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9622…01efbacked Yes | 17c | 3,450$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,865.96 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…7696backed Yes | 14c | 3,232$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,789.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +291.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 15c | 3,000$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,543.99 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f8…c282backed Yes | 11c | 2,875$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,558.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +181%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a9…48b9backed No | 5c | 2,800$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b93…3c34backed Yes | 3c | 2,668$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,587.14 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…0626backed No | 23c | 2,608$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7f…60ffbacked Yes | 17c | 1,810$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed No | 5c | 1,800$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +187.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3027…fbebbacked Yes | 11c | 1,796$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,596.42 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17b…556cbacked No | 2c | 1,793$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…046ebacked No | 23c | 1,738$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c8…c493backed Yes | 7c | 1,380$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dc…7283backed Yes | 8c | 1,100$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fc…8b32backed Yes | 8c | 1,057$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +318.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1a…4a20backed Yes | 11c | 1,018$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.85 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +177.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 7c | 999.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.97 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…43cebacked Yes | 7c | 913.96$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.98 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +74%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758c…074abacked Yes | 5c | 897.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.21 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 13c | 876$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.66 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked No | 23c | 868$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.64 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…03bdbacked Yes | 9c | 848.16$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +222.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…f0e7backed Yes | 23c | 815.6$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.6 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…8070backed Yes | 8c | 762.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.05 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb0…f974backed Yes | 13c | 760.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +280.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 77c | 725$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.5 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4acf…e8dcbacked Yes | 7c | 714.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +222.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb18…f867backed Yes | 10c | 629.7$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.39per pick | 18cpaid | +352.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01fb…36c8backed Yes | 12c | 617.27$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +320.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed Yes | 8c | 522.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.38 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91b7…533dbacked Yes | 8c | 465$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.15 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +250.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes | 11c | 420.87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.62 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 6c | 410$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.4 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42dd…48b7backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 7c | 392.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.54 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fa…df8abacked Yes | 7c | 362.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.68 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x381a…f2bfbacked Yes | 15c | 328.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.99 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.39per pick | 49cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…6295backed Yes | 10c | 297.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…7f9abacked Yes | 17c | 295.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +195.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939e…448cbacked Yes | 8c | 287.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +97%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…c3a3backed No | 18c | 283.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…e491backed Yes | 12c | 257.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.69 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…35c0backed Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 6cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc497…767abacked Yes | 5c | 249.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +221.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…4602backed Yes | 4c | 225$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 3cpaid | +275%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a9…2882backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +286.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c7…3abcbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 59c | 199.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 14c | 178.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.38 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…56c6backed Yes | 15c | 173$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6556…db73backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ea…1088backed Yes | 54c | 130.19$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -69%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f0…81bdbacked Yes | 20c | 102.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 18 | 94.4%17 W · 1 L | +6.7wins | +0.37per pick | 57cpaid | +84%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…7831backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1df…4269backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 60c | 21.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 25?this page
- No Israel strike Iran on by Sunday Oct 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Monday or earlier?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oct 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday Oct 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Thursday Oct 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Tuesday Oct 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Wednesday Oct 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.