Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Iran on Wednesday Oct 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f087af302eed2c64b8a934a4cace46301f770737886c998821a3f46de3d6be3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 3c | 2,481$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 1c | 2,129$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 7c | 1,610$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.35 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ec…29cdbacked Yes | 6c | 806.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…33b3backed Yes | 6c | 695.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 525.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked Yes | 3c | 484.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758c…074abacked Yes | 3c | 434.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce64…b8f5backed Yes | 6c | 413.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…4602backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 3cpaid | +275%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6556…db73backed Yes | 5c | 372.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7c…5c8fbacked Yes | 8c | 372.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 8c | 368.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 6c | 318.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked Yes | 8c | 254.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes | 8c | 200.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae61…4e32backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…1e9cbacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2944…f5c3backed Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fa…df8abacked Yes | 7c | 199.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Iran on Wednesday Oct 23?this page
- No Israel strike Iran on by Sunday Oct 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Monday or earlier?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oct 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday Oct 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Thursday Oct 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Tuesday Oct 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.