Middle East · resolved market
No Israel strike Iran by Sunday Oct 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d9af72951dbe6f2ef512136d43166052c591ce3edd7ebe3376928b8ebc2e295
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $301,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $295,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $301,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc94…607cbacked No | 0c | 35,868$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…acb7backed Yes | 78c | 16,329$12,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,565.16 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 20c | 15,119$3,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,058.75 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21c…e00cbacked No | 52c | 14,174$7,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,440 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +68%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 7c | 12,192$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.59 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…6d62backed Yes | 64c | 11,495$7,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,107.99 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes | 42c | 11,001$4,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,434.96 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 14c | 10,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.99 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 46c | 3,853$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,782.54 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 60c | 3,783$2,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,504.72 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc497…767abacked Yes | 80c | 3,237$2,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +221.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed No | 21c | 3,230$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.39 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…dcb8backed No | 17c | 2,422$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…5208backed Yes | 77c | 2,326$1,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.35 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff1…005fbacked No | 41c | 2,000$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe912…b30ebacked Yes | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.56per pick | 10cpaid | +974.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x63c7…f400backed Yes | 59c | 1,500$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17b…e734backed No | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 1,459$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.87 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 58c | 1,450$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…ee2ebacked No | 27c | 1,274$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.37 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 41c | 1,230$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.11 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7edc…29cbbacked No | 9c | 1,079$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed No | 30c | 1,034$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.26 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked No | 28c | 1,032$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.28 | 60 | 0%0 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd72b…99dabacked Yes | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 44cpaid | +151.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…a8d3backed No | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…e5d6backed No | 20c | 940$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 35c | 928.59$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.89 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…8c0dbacked Yes | 76c | 923.39$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.78 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ba…8a62backed Yes | 61c | 887.78$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 25c | 709.19$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.75 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes | 78c | 705$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.1 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…b5f3backed Yes | 75c | 679.52$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f5…2e7fbacked No | 16c | 625.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 20c | 620.74$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.06 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 65c | 591.91$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 31c | 566.54$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.9 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 58c | 451.31$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.57 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5531…76fcbacked No | 42c | 430.94$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Yes | 67c | 423.9$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.1 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf60a…9166backed No | 29c | 374.22$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 62c | 365.4$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.85 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…2d92backed Yes | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed Yes | 74c | 282.84$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.22 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb715…a663backed Yes | 72c | 281.58$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.58 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8679…333bbacked Yes | 72c | 277.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…effcbacked Yes | 52c | 263$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.74 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…ee29backed No | 38c | 258.39$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.77 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758c…074abacked No | 16c | 257.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed No | 42c | 240.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 18c | 228.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…604fbacked No | 23c | 220$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…ee4cbacked Yes | 69c | 219$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 75c | 213.63$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4b39…66b8backed No | 19c | 213.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1453…a680backed Yes | 41c | 202.88$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 23c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes | 65c | 200$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 46c | 197$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…0687backed No | 21c | 175$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 22c | 149.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d2…fe27backed Yes | 39c | 143.59$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40bb…72bebacked Yes | 74c | 135.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 59c | 131.37$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd023…74f7backed No | 31c | 126.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fd…1301backed No | 22c | 111.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…d4e1backed No | 50c | 110.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de0…b392backed Yes | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd2…826bbacked Yes | 62c | 100.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa357…1045backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x305f…7ee0backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6816…b693backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 65cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked Yes | 61c | 94.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 31c | 92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4437…503ebacked No | 42c | 82.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7204…3972backed Yes | 74c | 82.45$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f6…3724backed Yes | 63c | 79.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27a…12b0backed Yes | 64c | 70.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…cd58backed Yes | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238a…5f83backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc803…3349backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c4…8fe5backed Yes | 73c | 49.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed Yes | 64c | 47.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b4…951dbacked Yes | 50c | 47.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…4464backed No | 56c | 42.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed No | 61c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f56…ccd7backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…d5d4backed No | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +137%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…89f6backed Yes | 45c | 37.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a53…0d24backed Yes | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b6…f0c7backed No | 31c | 31.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- No Israel strike Iran by Sunday Oct 20?this page
- Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Monday or earlier?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oct 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday Oct 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Thursday Oct 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Tuesday Oct 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Wednesday Oct 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.