Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Iran on Monday or earlier?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30e3a858cf407439f748eb881fb839ab59705824ed752300d40bf8f7af4936db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $670,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $670,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x178f…3bc3backed Yes | 0c | 84,586$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…ffe6backed Yes | 0c | 82,407$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…82adbacked Yes | 0c | 79,838$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff5…0e07backed Yes | 0c | 75,521$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa5…f941backed Yes | 0c | 73,066$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x549e…f4f4backed Yes | 0c | 72,259$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…484bbacked Yes | 0c | 67,516$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b95…fa15backed Yes | 0c | 38,413$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…a6a7backed Yes | 0c | 34,465$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…632bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,810$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 3c | 9,187$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.65 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 5c | 5,592$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.83 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…43cebacked Yes | 4c | 2,526$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +74%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b93…3c34backed Yes | 3c | 1,412$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…effcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,354$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…d194backed Yes | 15c | 965$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…5c2dbacked Yes | 21c | 921$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 9c | 861.94$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 11c | 633.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.64 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes | 4c | 580$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…677abacked Yes | 3c | 533.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…8c0dbacked No | 79c | 495.7$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.95 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf359…c6cbbacked No | 80c | 420$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 19c | 315.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…2354backed No | 80c | 245.84$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 218.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf9…1289backed Yes | 27c | 185.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09eb…6d0dbacked Yes | 21c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 7c | 136.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed Yes | 24c | 125.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…ee50backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…2224backed Yes | 27c | 77.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9805…8a3cbacked No | 79c | 77.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…5733backed Yes | 27c | 60.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1702…b0e3backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2771…df92backed No | 80c | 36.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked No | 77c | 25.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Iran on Monday or earlier?this page
- No Israel strike Iran by Sunday Oct 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oct 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday Oct 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Thursday Oct 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Tuesday Oct 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Wednesday Oct 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.